Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 April 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sarpsborg Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at Sarpsborg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.91 xG and Lillestrom 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.925 / defence 0.938 | Lillestrom attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.797 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 0 Lillestrom games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 56% | Draw 24% | Lillestrom 20%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Lillestrom 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 56% | Draw 24% | Lillestrom 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.91 / Lillestrom 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.925 / def 0.938 | Lillestrom attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.797 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Lillestrom xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 April 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 56% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.85x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.10
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.99
1.08
Lillestrom xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
3%
34.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.08 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Pre-Season
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won 4-0 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
4
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom?
From 9 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Lillestrom have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Lillestrom 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Sarpsborg 08 FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom finished level at 0-0 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.91 xG and Lillestrom 1.08 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Lillestrom landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Lillestrom attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 56% | Draw 24% | Lillestrom 20%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.