Sandefjord vs Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host Tromso at Sandefjord Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sandefjord — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Sandefjord Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Tromso have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tromso have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Sandefjord are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sandefjord, 0 for Tromso and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Tromso in-play and half-time data (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 53% versus Tromso 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 58% | Tromso 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.74 xG and Tromso 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.890 / defence 0.801 | Tromso attack 0.950 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.834 / away 1.314. Data: 49 Sandefjord games / 19 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 52% | Draw 29% | Tromso 19%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Tromso 5.26. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sandefjord are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 50% | Tromso 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 52% | Draw 29% | Tromso 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Sandefjord 1.74 / Tromso 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.890 / def 0.801 | Tromso attack 0.950 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.834 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Tromso xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Tromso kick off?
Sandefjord vs Tromso kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Sandefjord Arena.
Where is Sandefjord vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Tromso part of?
Sandefjord vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 52% chance of winning, Tromso a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sandefjord and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Tromso?
Record (1 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 1 | Tromso 0W.
What form are Sandefjord and Tromso in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Tromso (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sandefjord's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Tromso's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Tromso's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
52%
1.92
29%
3.47
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.74
1.00
Tromso xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
3%
29.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.00 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord's recent record stands at 7W 4D 8L from 19 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tromso, meanwhile, have gone 3W 7D 9L across 19 games — 0.84 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sandefjord by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tromso heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sandefjord have managed 4W 3D 3L from 10 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tromso's away record stands at 3W 3D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.16 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tromso in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Tromso in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 7W 4D 8L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while Tromso have gone 3W 7D 9L in their last 19 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Tromso away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.50 PPG; Tromso away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Tromso runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Tromso won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Tromso specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sandefjord
3
Draws
5
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 2, Tromso have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Tromso 3-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 50%, Tromso 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sandefjord) and 60% (Tromso). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Tromso in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Tromso?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 50% of Tromso's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sandefjord's matches and 60% of Tromso's.
Do Sandefjord and Tromso tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Tromso in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord and Tromso finished level at 0-0 at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.74 xG and Tromso 1.00 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Tromso landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.89 / defence 0.80 against Tromso attack 0.95 / defence 1.06, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 52% | Draw 29% | Tromso 19%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 58%, Tromso 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Tromso's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sandefjord arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.