Sandefjord 0-1 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 51%, yet in-form Rosenborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sandefjord vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 24 as Sandefjord welcome Rosenborg to Jotun Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Sandefjord — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jotun Arena, Sandefjord have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Rosenborg's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Sandefjord's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Rosenborg, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Sandefjord.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Rosenborg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Rosenborg have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 64% and Rosenborg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 64% | Rosenborg 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 2.10 xG and Rosenborg 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.072 / defence 1.163 | Rosenborg attack 1.048 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.251. Rosenborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Sandefjord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Sandefjord games / 53 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 51% | Draw 21% | Rosenborg 28%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.96 | Draw 4.76 | Rosenborg 3.57. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rosenborg (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 80% | Rosenborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 51% | Draw 21% | Rosenborg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Sandefjord 2.10 / Rosenborg 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.072 / def 1.163 | Rosenborg attack 1.048 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Rosenborg xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Rosenborg kick off?
Sandefjord vs Rosenborg kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Sandefjord 0 - 1 Rosenborg.
Where is Sandefjord vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Rosenborg part of?
Sandefjord vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 51% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 28% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Sandefjord and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Rosenborg?
Record (6 meetings): Sandefjord 1W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 4W.
What form are Sandefjord and Rosenborg in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 1.07x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
51%
1.97
21%
4.75
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.62
1.52
Rosenborg xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
12%
8.13
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
3%
28.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.52 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord's recent record stands at 13W 14D 25L from 52 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 21L across 52 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.02 PPG, Rosenborg on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sandefjord have managed 11W 7D 8L from 26 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 6W 6D 14L across 26 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.62 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Rosenborg in 65%.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 13W 14D 25L in their last 52 games (1.02 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 21W 10D 21L in their last 52 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Rosenborg away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.54 PPG; Rosenborg away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2021, when Rosenborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sandefjord
3
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 2, Rosenborg have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Sandefjord 0-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 62%, Rosenborg at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Sandefjord and 73% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sandefjord's games and 69% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sandefjord's matches and 73% of Rosenborg's.
Do Sandefjord and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rosenborg defy the odds to beat Sandefjord 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Sandefjord 0-1 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 2.10 xG and Rosenborg 1.52 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sandefjord fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.07 / defence 1.16 against Rosenborg attack 1.05 / defence 1.20, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 51% | Draw 21% | Rosenborg 28%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Rosenborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 64%, Rosenborg 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rosenborg's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.02 PPG, Rosenborg 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.