Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandefjord at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb meet at Sandefjord Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Sandefjord (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord at Sandefjord Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Sandefjord Arena than their overall form suggests.
ODD Ballklubb have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Sandefjord 2W, ODD Ballklubb 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2021, ended 3–2 with Sandefjord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sandefjord — key trading statistics (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
ODD Ballklubb — key trading statistics (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 49% versus ODD Ballklubb 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 55% | ODD Ballklubb 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.54 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.800 / defence 0.952 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.978 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.303. Data: 51 Sandefjord games / 51 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 43% | Draw 30% | ODD Ballklubb 28%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | ODD Ballklubb 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sandefjord are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 50% | ODD Ballklubb 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 43% | Draw 30% | ODD Ballklubb 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Sandefjord 1.54 / ODD Ballklubb 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.800 / def 0.952 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.978 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.21
ODD Ballklubb xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Sandefjord Arena.
Where is Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 43% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (3 meetings): Sandefjord 2W | Draws 1 | ODD Ballklubb 0W.
What form are Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sandefjord's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (0.98x) against Sandefjord's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
43%
2.35
30%
3.35
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.75
1.21
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
6%
16.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.21 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Sandefjord have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 16W 12D 23L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 20W 9D 22L from 51 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.35 for ODD Ballklubb. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sandefjord have posted 1.19 PPG from 26 outings (7W 10D 9L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 8W 5D 13L from 26 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sandefjord are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.63 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 16W 12D 23L in their last 51 games (1.18 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 20W 9D 22L in their last 51 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.19 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 4-1 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sandefjord
3
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 5, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 10 November 2024, when Sandefjord 1-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 42%, ODD Ballklubb 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sandefjord) and 58% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 35% of games; ODD Ballklubb in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sandefjord's recent games and 58% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb finished level at 0-0 at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.54 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.21 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.5 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.80 / defence 0.95 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 43% | Draw 30% | ODD Ballklubb 28%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 55%, ODD Ballklubb 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.18 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.