Sandefjord 2-1 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sandefjord face KFUM Oslo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host KFUM Oslo at Jotun Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 27 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sandefjord have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sandefjord's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
KFUM Oslo — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
KFUM Oslo's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.30 (KFUM Oslo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Sandefjord's games and 60% of KFUM Oslo's (from Sandefjord's last 10 home games and KFUM Oslo's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Sandefjord have won 0, KFUM Oslo 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 6.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Jun 2024, ended Sandefjord 3–3 KFUM Oslo — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
KFUM Oslo in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 68% and KFUM Oslo 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 64% | KFUM Oslo 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.37 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.002 / defence 1.129 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.954 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.227. Data: built from Sandefjord's last 55 games and KFUM Oslo's last 25.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 38% | Draw 26% | KFUM Oslo 36%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.62 | Draw 3.87 | KFUM Oslo 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sandefjord's last 10 home games and KFUM Oslo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sandefjord 70% (last 10 home games) | KFUM Oslo 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 26 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 38% | Draw 26% | KFUM Oslo 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Sandefjord 1.37 / KFUM Oslo 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.002 / def 1.129 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.954 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.32
KFUM Oslo xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo FAQs
What time does Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Sandefjord 2 - 1 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 26) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 38% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandefjord's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against KFUM Oslo's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, KFUM Oslo's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sandefjord's last 55 games and KFUM Oslo's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
38%
2.62
26%
3.87
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.70
1.32
KFUM Oslo xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.32 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 25 games, going 6W 7D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, KFUM Oslo sit at 1.36 PPG from 25 outings (8W 10D 7L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.00 PPG, KFUM Oslo on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 5W 2D 5L across their last 12 home games, a 1.42 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, KFUM Oslo have taken 1.75 points per game from their last 12 away games (6W 3D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.20 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
KFUM Oslo
Blended
Sandefjord (Home) vs KFUM Oslo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sandefjord
Blended
KFUM Oslo
Blended
❓ Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo Form FAQs
What form are Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 6W 7D 12L in their last 25 games (1.00 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 8W 10D 7L in their last 25 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or KFUM Oslo away?
KFUM Oslo's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.42 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or KFUM Oslo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, KFUM Oslo in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from June 2024. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 7 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sandefjord's record when hosting KFUM Oslo specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sandefjord
1
Draws
2
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sandefjord have won 3, KFUM Oslo have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 August 2026: Sandefjord 0-1 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 67%, KFUM Oslo 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Sandefjord and 50% for KFUM Oslo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sandefjord's games and 58% of KFUM Oslo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Sandefjord's matches and 50% of KFUM Oslo's.
Do Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 75% of KFUM Oslo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out KFUM Oslo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat KFUM Oslo 2-1 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.37 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.32 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.00 / defence 1.13 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.95 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 38% | Draw 26% | KFUM Oslo 36%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 64%, KFUM Oslo 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.00 PPG, KFUM Oslo 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.