Rosenborg 1-0 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Monday 10 April 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Viking have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Viking's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Rosenborg's favour (1.90 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Viking in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Rosenborg 1W, Viking 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 4–1 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 70% and Viking 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 77% | Viking 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.28 xG and Viking 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.103 / defence 0.956 | Viking attack 1.056 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.904 / away 1.511. Data: 30 Rosenborg games / 30 Viking games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 55% | Draw 20% | Viking 25%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.82 | Draw 5.00 | Viking 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Viking 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 55% | Draw 20% | Viking 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 70% | xG Rosenborg 2.28 / Viking 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.103 / def 0.956 | Viking attack 1.056 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.904 / away 1.511 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Viking xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Viking kick off?
Rosenborg vs Viking kicked off at 13:30 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Viking?
Rosenborg 1 - 0 Viking.
Where is Rosenborg vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Viking part of?
Rosenborg vs Viking is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 55% chance of winning, Viking a 25% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Rosenborg and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Viking?
Record (3 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 1 | Viking 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Viking in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Viking (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.28. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.06x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
55%
1.83
20%
5.01
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.80
1.52
Viking xG
1.83
55%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
10%
9.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
3%
38.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.52 for Viking, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Viking?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rosenborg come into this having played 60 games, going 29W 17D 14L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.53 PPG from 60 outings (26W 14D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.53 for Viking. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rosenborg's home form reads 20W 6D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.40 points per game from 30 outings (12W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.80 scored and 1.68 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Viking in 75%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Viking in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 29W 17D 14L in their last 60 games (1.73 PPG), while Viking have gone 26W 14D 20L in their last 60 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Viking away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.20 PPG; Viking away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 1-5 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rosenborg
2
Draws
4
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 4, Viking have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Viking 3-0 Rosenborg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Rosenborg, 73% for Viking — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Rosenborg and 73% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rosenborg's games and 73% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Rosenborg's matches and 73% of Viking's.
Do Rosenborg and Viking tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Viking in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Viking 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Viking 1-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.28 xG and Viking 1.52 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rosenborg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Viking landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Viking attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 55% | Draw 20% | Viking 25%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 77%, Viking 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.73 PPG, Viking 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.