Rosenborg 2-2 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Stabaek encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Stabaek in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 30 August 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rosenborg's overall Eliteserien record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 5W 2D 1L from 8 home games — 2.12 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.38 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stabaek (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 2L across 7 road games this term (1.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Rosenborg's 2.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Stabaek's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Stabaek in 86%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Rosenborg 1W, Stabaek 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2020, ended 3–0 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Stabaek — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 47% versus Stabaek 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 60% | Stabaek 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.14 xG and Stabaek 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.224 / defence 0.978 | Stabaek attack 0.944 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.388. Stabaek bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Rosenborg games / 15 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 57% | Draw 21% | Stabaek 22%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Stabaek 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 62% | Stabaek 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 57% | Draw 21% | Stabaek 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG Rosenborg 2.14 / Stabaek 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.224 / def 0.978 | Stabaek attack 0.944 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Stabaek xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Stabaek kick off?
Rosenborg vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 August 2020 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Stabaek?
Rosenborg 2 - 2 Stabaek.
Where is Rosenborg vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Stabaek part of?
Rosenborg vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 57% chance of winning, Stabaek a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Rosenborg and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stabaek?
Record (1 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 0 | Stabaek 0W.
What form are Rosenborg and Stabaek in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Stabaek (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.22x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (0.94x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
57%
1.75
21%
4.84
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.42
1.28
Stabaek xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
12%
8.52
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
3%
38.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.28 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Stabaek?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 8W 3D 4L from 15 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 5L across 15 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stabaek heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 5W 1D 1L from 7 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stabaek's away record stands at 2W 3D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.27 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 8W 3D 4L in their last 15 games (1.80 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 4W 6D 5L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Stabaek away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.29 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Stabaek been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Stabaek in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 0-3 on 5 Jul 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rosenborg
3
Draws
0
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 3, Stabaek have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when Rosenborg 1-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Stabaek?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Rosenborg, 86% for Stabaek — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Rosenborg and 86% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Rosenborg's games and 86% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Rosenborg's matches and 86% of Stabaek's.
Do Rosenborg and Stabaek tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg and Stabaek share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 16, as Rosenborg and Stabaek drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.14 xG and Stabaek 1.28 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.22 / defence 0.98 against Stabaek attack 0.94 / defence 1.30, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 57% | Draw 21% | Stabaek 22%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 60%, Stabaek 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Stabaek's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.