Rosenborg 4-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host ODD Ballklubb at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 October 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 4W 1D 4L from 9 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.44 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rosenborg at 2.00 PPG versus ODD Ballklubb's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rosenborg, 1 for ODD Ballklubb and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2020, ended 1–2 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rosenborg trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (home games).
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 58% versus ODD Ballklubb 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 68% | ODD Ballklubb 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.32 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.185 / defence 1.058 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.012 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.409. ODD Ballklubb bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Rosenborg games / 19 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 56% | Draw 20% | ODD Ballklubb 24%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | ODD Ballklubb 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 70% | ODD Ballklubb 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Oct 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 56% | Draw 20% | ODD Ballklubb 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 70% | xG Rosenborg 2.32 / ODD Ballklubb 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.185 / def 1.058 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.012 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.51
ODD Ballklubb xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 4 October 2020 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Rosenborg 4 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 56% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 24% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (1 meetings): Rosenborg 0W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.32. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
56%
1.79
20%
5.07
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.83
1.51
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.79
56%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
10%
10.22
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
2%
41.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.51 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 10W 5D 4L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 11W 2D 6L from 19 games, 1.84 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rosenborg on 1.84 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.22 PPG from 9 outings (6W 2D 1L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 4W 1D 4L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of ODD Ballklubb's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rosenborg are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.89 scored and 1.47 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Last 19 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 10W 5D 4L in their last 19 games (1.84 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 11W 2D 6L in their last 19 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.22 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Rosenborg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Rosenborg
2
Draws
1
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 7, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 78%, ODD Ballklubb 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 89% for Rosenborg and 44% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 33%; ODD Ballklubb in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Rosenborg's games and 33% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 89% of Rosenborg's matches and 44% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 4-1 hammering of ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat ODD Ballklubb 4-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.32 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.51 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.19 / defence 1.06 against ODD Ballklubb attack 1.01 / defence 1.36, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 56% | Draw 20% | ODD Ballklubb 24%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 68%, ODD Ballklubb 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.84 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.56 average — above their attacking norm. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.