Rosenborg 2-1 Molde – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rosenborg's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Molde have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Rosenborg, 1.70 for Molde — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Rosenborg 1W, Molde 2W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Molde — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 65% and Molde 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 69% | Molde 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.30 xG and Molde 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.180 / defence 0.859 | Molde attack 1.046 / defence 0.724. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.282. Molde's defence strength of 0.724 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Rosenborg games / 49 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 40% | Draw 27% | Molde 33%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Molde 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 60% | Molde 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 40% | Draw 27% | Molde 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Rosenborg 1.30 / Molde 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.180 / def 0.859 | Molde attack 1.046 / def 0.724 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Molde xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Molde kick off?
Rosenborg vs Molde kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Molde?
Rosenborg 2 - 1 Molde.
Where is Rosenborg vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Molde part of?
Rosenborg vs Molde is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 40% chance of winning, Molde a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rosenborg and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Molde?
Record (6 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 3 | Molde 2W.
What form are Rosenborg and Molde in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Molde (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.18x the league average against Molde's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.05x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.67
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.45
1.15
Molde xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
9%
11.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.15 for Molde, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 19W 9D 21L from 49 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 25W 10D 14L across 49 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.73 for Molde. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 13W 4D 7L from 24 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Molde's away record stands at 11W 5D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.08 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Molde in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Molde in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 19W 9D 21L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while Molde have gone 25W 10D 14L in their last 49 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Molde away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.79 PPG; Molde away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Molde in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Molde go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-1 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
4
Draws
4
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 2, Molde have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Molde 2-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 62%, Molde 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Rosenborg and 62% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Rosenborg's games and 58% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Rosenborg's matches and 62% of Molde's.
Do Rosenborg and Molde tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Molde in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Molde 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Molde 2-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.30 xG and Molde 1.15 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.18 / defence 0.86 against Molde attack 1.05 / defence 0.72, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 40% | Draw 27% | Molde 33%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 69%, Molde 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Molde's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.35 PPG, Molde 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.