Rosenborg 3-1 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rosenborg face Molde.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Molde in Eliteserien (matchday 27). Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Rosenborg's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rosenborg at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Molde have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Molde's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Rosenborg, 1.50 for Molde — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Rosenborg's last 10 home games and Molde's last 10 away games) — Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Molde in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Rosenborg, 2 for Molde and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Apr 2023, ended Rosenborg 1–1 Molde — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Molde — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 64% and Molde 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 71% | Molde 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.53 xG and Molde 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.911 / defence 0.918 | Molde attack 1.208 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.837 / away 1.362. Molde have an above-average attack rating of 1.208, which lifts their away xG to 1.51. Data: built from Rosenborg's last 56 games and Molde's last 56.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 38% | Draw 24% | Molde 37%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.60 | Draw 4.15 | Molde 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.53 / 1.51) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rosenborg's last 10 home games and Molde's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rosenborg 60% (last 10 home games) | Molde 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 27 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 38% | Draw 24% | Molde 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Rosenborg 1.53 / Molde 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.911 / def 0.918 | Molde attack 1.208 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.837 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Molde xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rosenborg vs Molde FAQs
What time does Rosenborg vs Molde kick off?
Rosenborg vs Molde kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Molde?
Rosenborg 3 - 1 Molde.
Where is Rosenborg vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Molde part of?
Rosenborg vs Molde is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 27) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 38% chance of winning, Molde a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Rosenborg and Molde will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rosenborg vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 0.91x the league average against Molde's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.21x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from Rosenborg's last 56 games and Molde's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
38%
2.60
24%
4.15
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.04
1.51
Molde xG
2.60
38%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
8%
11.79
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rosenborg vs Molde Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.51 for Molde, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 25W 14D 17L from 56 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 38W 8D 10L across 56 games — 2.18 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Molde by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rosenborg heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 18W 5D 5L from their last 28 home games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Molde's away record stands at 18W 5D 5L across their last 28 away games, a 2.11 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.27 scored and 1.05 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Molde in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Molde
Blended
Rosenborg (Home) vs Molde (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rosenborg
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Rosenborg vs Molde Form FAQs
What form are Rosenborg and Molde in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 25W 14D 17L in their last 56 games (1.59 PPG), while Molde have gone 38W 8D 10L in their last 56 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Molde away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.11 PPG; Molde away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Molde in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Rosenborg and Molde, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Molde have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won Molde 4-1 Rosenborg on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
4
Draws
4
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Rosenborg vs Molde H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Molde?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rosenborg have won 2, Molde have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Molde last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Molde 2-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 57%, Molde 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Rosenborg and 64% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Molde in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rosenborg vs Molde Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rosenborg and Molde matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Rosenborg's games and 61% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rosenborg and Molde matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Rosenborg's matches and 64% of Molde's.
Do Rosenborg and Molde matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 75% of Molde's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Molde.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Molde 3-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.53 xG and Molde 1.51 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.91 / defence 0.92 against Molde attack 1.21 / defence 0.92, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 38% | Draw 24% | Molde 37%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 71%, Molde 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Molde's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.59. Form was overturned, with Rosenborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm. Molde (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.