Rosenborg 1-1 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 1 June 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
KFUM Oslo have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
KFUM Oslo's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Rosenborg. A 1.50 PPG lead over KFUM Oslo (2.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rosenborg lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with KFUM Oslo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
KFUM Oslo half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 60% versus KFUM Oslo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 63% | KFUM Oslo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.20 xG and KFUM Oslo 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.890 / defence 0.585 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.648 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.447. Rosenborg's defence rating of 0.585 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Rosenborg games / 38 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 52% | Draw 31% | KFUM Oslo 17%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.92 | Draw 3.23 | KFUM Oslo 5.88. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — KFUM Oslo's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.75 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 60% | KFUM Oslo 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 52% | Draw 31% | KFUM Oslo 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 30% | xG Rosenborg 1.20 / KFUM Oslo 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.890 / def 0.585 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.648 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.55
KFUM Oslo xG
30%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo?
Rosenborg 1 - 1 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 52% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo?
Record (2 meetings): Rosenborg 0W | Draws 0 | KFUM Oslo 2W.
What form are Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. KFUM Oslo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 0.89x the league average against KFUM Oslo's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KFUM Oslo's attack (0.65x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.58x) — and the away total comes out at 0.55.
These ratings are built from 40/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (18.8%), 1-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
52%
1.91
31%
3.24
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
1.75
0.55
KFUM Oslo xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.39
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
58%
1.73
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
5%
19.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 9.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.9 | 11.4 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.4%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.55 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 16W 5D 9L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
KFUM Oslo's form line: 9W 10D 11L from 30 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KFUM Oslo.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.13 PPG from 15 outings (10W 2D 3L).
On the road, KFUM Oslo have gone 7W 3D 5L from 15 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.17 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
KFUM Oslo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 16W 5D 9L in their last 30 games (1.77 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or KFUM Oslo away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.13 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or KFUM Oslo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, KFUM Oslo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
KFUM Oslo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KFUM Oslo won 4-1 on 3 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Rosenborg
1
Draws
4
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo?
From 5 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 0, KFUM Oslo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when KFUM Oslo 2-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo?
KFUM Oslo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 60%, KFUM Oslo 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Rosenborg) and 47% (KFUM Oslo).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; KFUM Oslo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play KFUM Oslo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rosenborg's games and 53% of KFUM Oslo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Rosenborg's recent games and 47% of KFUM Oslo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, KFUM Oslo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 9, as Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.20 xG and KFUM Oslo 0.55 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.89 / defence 0.58 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.65 / defence 0.91, drawn from 40/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 52% | Draw 31% | KFUM Oslo 17%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 63%, KFUM Oslo 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.