Rosenborg 1-1 Brann – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Brann (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rosenborg face Brann.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rosenborg and Brann meet at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rosenborg have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Brann have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Brann are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Brann in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Brann hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 2–3 with Brann winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Brann have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 55% versus Brann 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 57% | Brann 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.71 xG and Brann 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.993 / defence 0.991 | Brann attack 1.505 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.247. Brann have an above-average attack strength of 1.505 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Rosenborg games / 35 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 35% | Draw 23% | Brann 41%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Brann 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Brann 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 35% | Draw 23% | Brann 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG Rosenborg 1.71 / Brann 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.993 / def 0.991 | Brann attack 1.505 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Brann (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Brann xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Brann kick off?
Rosenborg vs Brann kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Brann?
Rosenborg 1 - 1 Brann.
Where is Rosenborg vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Brann part of?
Rosenborg vs Brann is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 35% chance of winning, Brann a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Rosenborg and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Brann?
Record (8 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 2 | Brann 5W.
What form are Rosenborg and Brann in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Brann (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 0.99x the league average against Brann's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.50x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
35%
2.83
23%
4.27
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.57
1.86
Brann xG
2.83
35%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.33
Clean Sheet
16%
6.42
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
6%
18.17
7%
13.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.86 for Brann, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rosenborg come into this having played 60 games, going 27W 14D 19L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Brann sit at 1.92 PPG from 60 outings (34W 13D 13L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.92 for Brann. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rosenborg's home form reads 17W 8D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Brann have taken 1.73 points per game from 30 outings (15W 7D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.83 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Brann in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 games (1.58 PPG), while Brann have gone 34W 13D 13L in their last 60 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Brann away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.97 PPG; Brann away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Brann in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 3-0 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Rosenborg
3
Draws
6
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 1, Brann have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Brann 3-2 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 57%, Brann 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Rosenborg and 73% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Rosenborg's games and 60% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Rosenborg's matches and 73% of Brann's.
Do Rosenborg and Brann tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Brann in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg and Brann share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg and Brann finished level at 1-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.71 xG and Brann 1.86 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Brann landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.99 / defence 0.99 against Brann attack 1.50 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 35% | Draw 23% | Brann 41%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 57%, Brann 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Brann's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.58 PPG, Brann 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.