Rosenborg 0-2 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rosenborg and Brann meet at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rosenborg have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Brann haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Brann have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Rosenborg's favour (1.90 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Brann in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Rosenborg 1W, Brann 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 71% and Brann 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 81% | Brann 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.81 xG and Brann 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.956 / defence 0.889 | Brann attack 0.902 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.128. Data: 34 Rosenborg games / 4 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 57% | Draw 26% | Brann 17%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Brann 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Brann 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 57% | Draw 26% | Brann 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Rosenborg 1.81 / Brann 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.956 / def 0.889 | Brann attack 0.902 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Brann xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Brann kick off?
Rosenborg vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Brann?
Rosenborg 0 - 2 Brann.
Where is Rosenborg vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Brann part of?
Rosenborg vs Brann is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 57% chance of winning, Brann a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rosenborg and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Brann?
Record (3 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 1 | Brann 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Brann in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Brann (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 0.96x the league average against Brann's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.90x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
57%
1.76
26%
3.78
17%
6.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.72
0.91
Brann xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
6.03
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
3%
36.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.8 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.91 for Brann, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rosenborg come into this having played 31 games, going 16W 9D 6L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Brann sit at 0.87 PPG from 31 outings (5W 12D 14L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. Brann haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of Brann — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Rosenborg's home form reads 12W 2D 1L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.53 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.84 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Brann have taken 0.60 points per game from 15 outings (1W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.35 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Brann in 71%.
Last 31 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Brann
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Brann in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 16W 9D 6L in their last 31 games (1.84 PPG), while Brann have gone 5W 12D 14L in their last 31 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Brann away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.53 PPG; Brann away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 3-0 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Rosenborg
3
Draws
6
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 1, Brann have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Rosenborg 1-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 60%, Brann 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Rosenborg and 60% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Brann in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rosenborg's games and 67% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Rosenborg's matches and 60% of Brann's.
Do Rosenborg and Brann tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Brann in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Rosenborg 0-2 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.81 xG and Brann 0.91 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Brann outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.96 / defence 0.89 against Brann attack 0.90 / defence 1.12, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 57% | Draw 26% | Brann 17%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Brann win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 81%, Brann 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Brann's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Brann winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brann (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.