ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord meet at Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
ODD Ballklubb at Skagerak Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sandefjord (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Sandefjord away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: ODD Ballklubb 0W, Sandefjord 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 57% versus Sandefjord 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 63% | Sandefjord 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.58 xG and Sandefjord 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.995 / defence 1.066 | Sandefjord attack 0.985 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.287. Data: 30 ODD Ballklubb games / 30 Sandefjord games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 42% | Draw 27% | Sandefjord 32%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Sandefjord 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 80% | Sandefjord 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 42% | Draw 27% | Sandefjord 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.58 / Sandefjord 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.995 / def 1.066 | Sandefjord attack 0.985 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Sandefjord xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 16 May 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 42% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord?
Record (2 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 0W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 1W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (0.99) and Sandefjord's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (0.98x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
The sample (30/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
42%
2.40
27%
3.75
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.93
1.35
Sandefjord xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.35 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 30 games, going 13W 4D 13L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.17 PPG from 30 outings (9W 8D 13L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.17 for Sandefjord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 8W 2D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (6W 1D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.03 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 4D 13L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Sandefjord away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.73 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.27 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 4-1 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
3
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Sandefjord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 10 November 2024, when Sandefjord 1-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 67%, Sandefjord 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for ODD Ballklubb and 53% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 53% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 53% of Sandefjord's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at ODD Ballklubb's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 8, as ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.58 xG and Sandefjord 1.35 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Sandefjord landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against Sandefjord attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 42% | Draw 27% | Sandefjord 32%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 63%, Sandefjord 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.43 PPG, Sandefjord 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.