ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Skagerak Arena plays host to ODD Ballklubb versus Mjondalen in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 28 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 2W 2D 6L at Skagerak Arena — 0.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mjondalen (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for ODD Ballklubb, 0.90 for Mjondalen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — ODD Ballklubb register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Mjondalen in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours ODD Ballklubb, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Mjondalen — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both ODD Ballklubb and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
ODD Ballklubb half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Mjondalen half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 60% versus Mjondalen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 64% | Mjondalen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 2.06 xG and Mjondalen 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.999 / defence 1.613 | Mjondalen attack 0.849 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.224. Data: 58 ODD Ballklubb games / 57 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 45% | Draw 25% | Mjondalen 30%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Mjondalen 3.33. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.74 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 90% | Mjondalen 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 45% | Draw 25% | Mjondalen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 73% | xG ODD Ballklubb 2.06 / Mjondalen 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.999 / def 1.613 | Mjondalen attack 0.849 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Mjondalen xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 45% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen?
Record (4 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 3W | Draws 1 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.00x the league average against Mjondalen's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mjondalen's attack (0.85x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (1.61x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 58/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
45%
2.22
25%
3.98
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.74
1.68
Mjondalen xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.70
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
13%
7.86
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
4%
26.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.68 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 20W 13D 25L from 58 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Mjondalen, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 32L across 58 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 0.90 for Mjondalen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 12W 6D 11L from 29 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjondalen's away record stands at 4W 8D 17L across 29 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.05 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ODD Ballklubb have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 20W 13D 25L in their last 58 games (1.26 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 13W 13D 32L in their last 58 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Mjondalen away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.45 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won 6-1 on 30 Aug 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 3, Mjondalen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2021, when ODD Ballklubb 2-2 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 72%, Mjondalen 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for ODD Ballklubb and 48% for Mjondalen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 55% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 48% of Mjondalen's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at ODD Ballklubb's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 30, as ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 2.06 xG and Mjondalen 1.68 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Mjondalen landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.00 / defence 1.61 against Mjondalen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 45% | Draw 25% | Mjondalen 30%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 64%, Mjondalen 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjondalen's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.26 PPG, Mjondalen 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.