ODD Ballklubb 0-4 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Bodo/Glimt travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 1 July 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 2W 0D 2L from 4 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. ODD Ballklubb have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 4W 0D 0L from 4 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.75 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bodo/Glimt have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Bodo/Glimt's 3.00 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of ODD Ballklubb's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 50% and Bodo/Glimt 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ODD Ballklubb 75% | Bodo/Glimt 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 2.12 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.170 / defence 1.182 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.246 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.606. Bodo/Glimt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing ODD Ballklubb's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.246 — the away xG of 2.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 ODD Ballklubb games / 4 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 36% | Draw 19% | Bodo/Glimt 45%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.78 | Draw 5.26 | Bodo/Glimt 2.22. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 80% | Total xG 4.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 80% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 2.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.48 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 80% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 50% | Bodo/Glimt 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 36% | Draw 19% | Bodo/Glimt 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 80% | xG ODD Ballklubb 2.12 / Bodo/Glimt 2.36 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.170 / def 1.182 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.246 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.606 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
2.36
Bodo/Glimt xG
80%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 1 July 2020 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
ODD Ballklubb 0 - 4 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 36% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 45% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 80% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 4W-0D-0L in 4 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.17x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 2.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-2 carries the highest individual probability at 7.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (6.7%), 1-1 (6.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
36%
2.79
19%
5.17
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
6.7%
Away win
2 – 1
6.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
4.48
2.36
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.79
36%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
80%
BTTS Yes
1.25
20%
BTTS No
4.93
Clean Sheet
9%
10.63
12%
8.33
Win to Nil
3%
29.64
5%
18.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 2.36 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 4.48.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 4W 0D 0L across 4 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ODD Ballklubb heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.75 scored and 1.50 conceded. Bodo/Glimt's attacking output running into ODD Ballklubb's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 100%.
Last 4 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Early Season
Bodo/Glimt
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 0D 0L in their last 4 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 50%, Bodo/Glimt at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for ODD Ballklubb and 100% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 100% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 100% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 0-4 hammering of ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat ODD Ballklubb 0-4 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 2.12 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.36 xG, a combined 4.48. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 2.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.17 / defence 1.18 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.25 / defence 1.30, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 36% | Draw 19% | Bodo/Glimt 45%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 80% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 88% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 75%, Bodo/Glimt 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. ODD Ballklubb managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.