ODD Ballklubb 0-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as ODD Ballklubb face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Bodo/Glimt travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 July 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb at Skagerak Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's away record: 8W 0D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Bodo/Glimt's 2.30 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of ODD Ballklubb's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for ODD Ballklubb, 4 for Bodo/Glimt and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 63%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 49% versus Bodo/Glimt 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 46% | Bodo/Glimt 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.14 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.770 / defence 0.716 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.325 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.222. ODD Ballklubb's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.325 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. ODD Ballklubb's defence rating of 0.716 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 ODD Ballklubb games / 43 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 35% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 36%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Bodo/Glimt 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: ODD Ballklubb 50% | Bodo/Glimt 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 35% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.14 / Bodo/Glimt 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.770 / def 0.716 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.325 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Bodo/Glimt xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 9 July 2023 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
ODD Ballklubb 0 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 35% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (7 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 2W | Draws 1 | Bodo/Glimt 4W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 0.77x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.52
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.29
1.16
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
11%
9.07
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.16 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 17W 10D 16L from 43 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 28W 8D 7L across 43 games — 2.14 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ODD Ballklubb heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 10W 3D 7L from 20 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bodo/Glimt's away record stands at 14W 0D 6L across 20 trips, a 2.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.79 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 65%.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 17W 10D 16L in their last 43 games (1.42 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 28W 8D 7L in their last 43 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.65 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.10 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 55%, Bodo/Glimt 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for ODD Ballklubb and 70% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 60% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 70% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat ODD Ballklubb 0-2 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.14 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.16 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.77 / defence 0.72 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.32 / defence 0.86, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 35% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 36%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 46%, Bodo/Glimt 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.