Molde 3-0 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Molde (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Molde face ODD Ballklubb.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 18 as Molde welcome ODD Ballklubb to Aker Stadion. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 11 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Molde — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Molde's home record at Aker Stadion: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Molde carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Molde: 4 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for ODD Ballklubb, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with Molde winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Molde and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Molde in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Molde 62% and ODD Ballklubb 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 80% | ODD Ballklubb 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 1.75 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.158 / defence 1.225 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.744 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.219. Data: 35 Molde games / 35 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 52% | Draw 24% | ODD Ballklubb 24%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | ODD Ballklubb 4.17. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Molde 50% | ODD Ballklubb 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 52% | Draw 24% | ODD Ballklubb 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Molde 1.75 / ODD Ballklubb 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.158 / def 1.225 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.744 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Molde (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.11
ODD Ballklubb xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Molde vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs ODD Ballklubb?
Molde 3 - 0 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Molde vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Molde vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 52% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Molde and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (4 meetings): Molde 4W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 0W.
What form are Molde and ODD Ballklubb in?
Molde (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Molde's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Molde's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.24
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Molde xG
Total xG
2.86
1.11
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
4%
23.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Molde and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Molde and 1.11 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Molde come into this having played 60 games, going 38W 8D 14L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.27 PPG from 60 outings (21W 13D 26L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Molde carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Molde's home form reads 23W 3D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.03 points per game from 30 outings (8W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Molde are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.60 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; ODD Ballklubb in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 38W 8D 14L in their last 60 games (2.03 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 21W 13D 26L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Molde's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.40 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Molde or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Molde and ODD Ballklubb runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2021, when Molde won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Molde's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Molde
0
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 8, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Molde and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-4 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Molde and ODD Ballklubb?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 57%, ODD Ballklubb 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Molde and 53% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Molde's recent matches and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Molde vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Molde's matches and 53% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Molde and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 3-0 hammering of ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat ODD Ballklubb 3-0 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 1.75 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.11 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Molde beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.16 / defence 1.23 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.74 / defence 0.96, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 52% | Draw 24% | ODD Ballklubb 24%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 80%, ODD Ballklubb 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Molde (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.