Molde 1-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Haugesund travel to Aker Stadion to take on Molde. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 July 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Molde have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde at Aker Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Haugesund — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Haugesund have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Molde are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Molde register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Haugesund in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Molde have won 2, Haugesund 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with Molde winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Molde trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Haugesund trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 57% versus Haugesund 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 68% | Haugesund 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.31 xG and Haugesund 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.334 / defence 0.980 | Haugesund attack 0.992 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.389. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.334 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Molde games / 44 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 59% | Draw 20% | Haugesund 22%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Haugesund 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Molde (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.66 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Molde 80% | Haugesund 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jul 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 59% | Draw 20% | Haugesund 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 67% | xG Molde 2.31 / Haugesund 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.334 / def 0.980 | Haugesund attack 0.992 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Molde (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Haugesund xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Haugesund kick off?
Molde vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 17 July 2022 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Haugesund?
Molde 1 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Molde vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Haugesund part of?
Molde vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 59% chance of winning, Haugesund a 22% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Molde and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Haugesund?
Record (2 meetings): Molde 2W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are Molde and Haugesund in?
Molde (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Haugesund (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Molde's attack at 1.33x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Molde's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
59%
1.70
20%
5.10
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Molde xG
Total xG
3.66
1.35
Haugesund xG
1.70
59%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
10%
10.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
2%
46.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Molde and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Molde and 1.35 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Molde have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 27W 9D 8L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund's form line: 12W 12D 20L from 44 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-D. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Molde have posted 2.18 PPG from 22 outings (15W 3D 4L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 2W 7D 13L from 22 away games — 0.59 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Molde are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.52 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 27W 9D 8L in their last 44 games (2.05 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 12W 12D 20L in their last 44 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Haugesund away?
Molde's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.18 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Molde or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Haugesund in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Molde have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Molde won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Molde's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Molde
0
Draws
0
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 10, Haugesund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Haugesund 0-2 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Haugesund?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 64%, Haugesund 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Molde and 54% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Haugesund in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Molde's games and 59% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Molde's matches and 54% of Haugesund's.
Do Molde and Haugesund tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Haugesund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Haugesund 1-0 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.31 xG and Haugesund 1.35 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Molde fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.33 / defence 0.98 against Haugesund attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 59% | Draw 20% | Haugesund 22%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 68%, Haugesund 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Haugesund's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. Molde (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.