Mjondalen 1-2 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjondalen vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjondalen host Lillestrom at Consto Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mjondalen — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjondalen have posted 3W 3D 4L at Consto Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Mjondalen are significantly better at Consto Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Lillestrom have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 2L across 8 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lillestrom — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Mjondalen have won 0, Lillestrom 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2021, ended 1–2 with Lillestrom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Lillestrom in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjondalen 75% and Lillestrom 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 50% | Lillestrom 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.30 xG and Lillestrom 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.795 / defence 1.135 | Lillestrom attack 1.170 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.821 / away 1.228. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Mjondalen games / 16 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 28% | Draw 30% | Lillestrom 42%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Lillestrom 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lillestrom are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 70% | Lillestrom 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 28% | Draw 30% | Lillestrom 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Mjondalen 1.30 / Lillestrom 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.795 / def 1.135 | Lillestrom attack 1.170 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.821 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Lillestrom xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Lillestrom kick off?
Mjondalen vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Lillestrom?
Mjondalen 1 - 2 Lillestrom.
Where is Mjondalen vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Lillestrom part of?
Mjondalen vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 28% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Mjondalen and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Lillestrom?
Record (1 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 1W.
What form are Mjondalen and Lillestrom in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mjondalen's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
28%
3.62
30%
3.34
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.93
1.63
Lillestrom xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
5%
18.46
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.63 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mjondalen's recent record stands at 2W 7D 7L from 16 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 4L across 16 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lillestrom by 0.94 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjondalen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mjondalen have managed 1W 3D 4L from 8 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lillestrom's away record stands at 3W 3D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mjondalen are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.50 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjondalen have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Lillestrom in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 2W 7D 7L in their last 16 games (0.81 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 8W 4D 4L in their last 16 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 0.75 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjondalen and Lillestrom runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
0
Draws
2
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Lillestrom?
From 2 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Lillestrom have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2021, when Mjondalen 1-2 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Mjondalen at 75%, Lillestrom at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Mjondalen and 62% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Mjondalen's games and 75% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjondalen vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Mjondalen's matches and 62% of Lillestrom's.
Do Mjondalen and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lillestrom edge out Mjondalen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Mjondalen 1-2 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.30 xG and Lillestrom 1.63 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.80 / defence 1.14 against Lillestrom attack 1.17 / defence 0.90, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 28% | Draw 30% | Lillestrom 42%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 50%, Lillestrom 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Lillestrom's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.