Mjondalen vs Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjondalen at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjondalen vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Brann travel to Consto Arena to take on Mjondalen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjondalen have posted 2W 2D 6L at Consto Arena — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Brann are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mjondalen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Brann in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Mjondalen, 0 for Brann and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Brann in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjondalen 52% and Brann 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 48% | Brann 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.68 xG and Brann 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.899 / defence 0.967 | Brann attack 1.002 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.792 / away 1.228. Data: 56 Mjondalen games / 56 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 47% | Draw 29% | Brann 25%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Brann 4.00. Mjondalen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Mjondalen dominate the H2H record, yet Brann are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Mjondalen are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brann (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjondalen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 70% | Brann 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 47% | Draw 29% | Brann 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Mjondalen 1.68 / Brann 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.899 / def 0.967 | Brann attack 1.002 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.792 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Brann xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Brann kick off?
Mjondalen vs Brann kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Consto Arena.
Where is Mjondalen vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Brann part of?
Mjondalen vs Brann is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 47% chance of winning, Brann a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Mjondalen and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Brann?
Record (4 meetings): Mjondalen 2W | Draws 2 | Brann 0W.
What form are Mjondalen and Brann in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Brann (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjondalen's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Brann's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
47%
2.15
29%
3.48
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.87
1.19
Brann xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
5%
21.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.19 for Brann, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Mjondalen have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 12W 12D 32L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 13W 18D 25L from 56 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjondalen on 0.86 PPG, Brann on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mjondalen have posted 1.04 PPG from 28 outings (8W 5D 15L).
On the road, Brann have gone 6W 8D 14L from 28 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjondalen are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.29 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 71%.
Last 56 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Brann in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 12W 12D 32L in their last 56 games (0.86 PPG), while Brann have gone 13W 18D 25L in their last 56 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Brann away?
Mjondalen's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.04 PPG; Brann away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Mjondalen's record when hosting Brann specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Mjondalen
2
Draws
0
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Brann?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 2, Brann have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2021, when Mjondalen 1-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Brann?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 50%, Brann 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mjondalen) and 54% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Brann in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Mjondalen's games and 61% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjondalen vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mjondalen's recent games and 54% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and Brann tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Brann in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mjondalen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen and Brann finished level at 0-0 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.68 xG and Brann 1.19 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Brann landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Brann attack 1.00 / defence 1.04, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 47% | Draw 29% | Brann 25%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 48%, Brann 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjondalen 0.86 PPG, Brann 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.