Mjondalen 3-0 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjondalen at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjondalen vs Aalesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Aalesund travel to Consto Arena to take on Mjondalen. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 22 December 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Mjondalen at Consto Arena this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Aalesund — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Aalesund's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Mjondalen have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Mjondalen, 0 for Aalesund and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Jul 2020, ended 3–1 with Mjondalen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mjondalen trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Aalesund trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 38% versus Aalesund 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 38% | Aalesund 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.62 xG and Aalesund 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.696 / defence 1.025 | Aalesund attack 0.678 / defence 1.718. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.377. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 1.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.718 — this is suppressing Mjondalen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Mjondalen games / 29 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 51% | Draw 28% | Aalesund 21%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Aalesund 4.76. Mjondalen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjondalen at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjondalen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Mjondalen 20% | Aalesund 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Dec 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 51% | Draw 28% | Aalesund 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Mjondalen 1.62 / Aalesund 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.696 / def 1.025 | Aalesund attack 0.678 / def 1.718 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Aalesund xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Aalesund kick off?
Mjondalen vs Aalesund kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 22 December 2020 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Aalesund?
Mjondalen 3 - 0 Aalesund.
Where is Mjondalen vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Aalesund part of?
Mjondalen vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 51% chance of winning, Aalesund a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mjondalen and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Aalesund?
Record (1 meetings): Mjondalen 1W | Draws 0 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are Mjondalen and Aalesund in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mjondalen's attack at 0.70x the league average against Aalesund's defence at 1.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Aalesund's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
51%
1.94
28%
3.59
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.58
0.96
Aalesund xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
4%
24.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Mjondalen and 0.96 for Aalesund, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Aalesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Mjondalen have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 7W 3D 19L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Aalesund's form line: 2W 5D 22L from 29 games, 0.38 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Mjondalen are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aalesund.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mjondalen have posted 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (5W 0D 9L).
On the road, Aalesund have gone 1W 2D 11L from 14 away games — 0.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjondalen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mjondalen are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.03 scored and 2.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund in 69%.
Last 29 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Current Season
Aalesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 7W 3D 19L in their last 29 games (0.83 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 2W 5D 22L in their last 29 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Aalesund away?
Mjondalen's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.07 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjondalen and Aalesund runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 December 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Mjondalen
0
Draws
0
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Aalesund?
From 2 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 2, Aalesund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2020, when Mjondalen 3-0 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Aalesund?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 29%, Aalesund 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Mjondalen) and 71% (Aalesund).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Mjondalen have failed to score in 36% of games; Aalesund in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 57% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Mjondalen's recent games and 71% of Aalesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and Aalesund tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mjondalen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen beat Aalesund 3-0 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.62 xG and Aalesund 0.96 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mjondalen beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Aalesund landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.70 / defence 1.02 against Aalesund attack 0.68 / defence 1.72, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 51% | Draw 28% | Aalesund 21%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 38%, Aalesund 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Aalesund's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjondalen arrived the stronger side — 0.83 PPG against 0.38. Form held, and they took the win. Mjondalen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.