Lillestrom 0-3 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 29 as Lillestrom welcome Sandefjord to Åråsen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Lillestrom have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Lillestrom's home record at Åråsen Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Lillestrom are significantly better at Åråsen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sandefjord — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sandefjord have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sandefjord — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lillestrom register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sandefjord in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Lillestrom: 5 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Sandefjord, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Lillestrom winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lillestrom and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Lillestrom trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sandefjord trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 57% versus Sandefjord 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 66% | Sandefjord 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.44 xG and Sandefjord 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.882 / defence 1.142 | Sandefjord attack 0.904 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.268. Data: 58 Lillestrom games / 58 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 40% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 34%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Sandefjord 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Lillestrom dominate the H2H record, yet Sandefjord are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Lillestrom are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sandefjord (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 60% | Sandefjord 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 40% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Lillestrom 1.44 / Sandefjord 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.882 / def 1.142 | Sandefjord attack 0.904 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Sandefjord xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Sandefjord kick off?
Lillestrom vs Sandefjord kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Lillestrom 0 - 3 Sandefjord.
Where is Lillestrom vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Sandefjord part of?
Lillestrom vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 40% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lillestrom and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Sandefjord?
Record (7 meetings): Lillestrom 5W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 1W.
What form are Lillestrom and Sandefjord in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
40%
2.49
26%
3.92
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.75
1.31
Sandefjord xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
8%
12.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.31 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lillestrom come into this having played 58 games, going 20W 7D 31L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.07 PPG from 58 outings (16W 14D 28L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lillestrom on 1.16 PPG, Sandefjord on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lillestrom's home form reads 12W 4D 13L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.55 points per game from 29 outings (3W 7D 19L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lillestrom are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.47 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord in 62%.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 20W 7D 31L in their last 58 games (1.16 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 16W 14D 28L in their last 58 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Sandefjord away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.38 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Lillestrom won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lillestrom's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Lillestrom
1
Draws
2
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Sandefjord?
From 9 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 6, Sandefjord have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Lillestrom 3-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Sandefjord?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 62%, Sandefjord 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Lillestrom and 62% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Lillestrom's games and 66% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Lillestrom's matches and 62% of Sandefjord's.
Do Lillestrom and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sandefjord run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Lillestrom 0-3 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.44 xG and Sandefjord 1.31 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Sandefjord outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Sandefjord attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 40% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 34%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sandefjord win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 66%, Sandefjord 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sandefjord's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.16 PPG, Sandefjord 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.