Lillestrom vs Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Åråsen Stadion plays host to Lillestrom versus Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rosenborg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.09 xG and Rosenborg 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.757 / defence 1.374 | Rosenborg attack 1.003 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.368. Lillestrom's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Lillestrom games / 34 Rosenborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 20% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 54%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 5.00 | Draw 3.70 | Rosenborg 1.85. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 20% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Lillestrom 1.09 / Rosenborg 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.757 / def 1.374 | Rosenborg attack 1.003 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Rosenborg xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Rosenborg kick off?
Lillestrom vs Rosenborg kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 24 May 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
Where is Lillestrom vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Rosenborg part of?
Lillestrom vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 20% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lillestrom and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lillestrom and Rosenborg in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Rosenborg away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.00x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
The sample (2/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
20%
5.13
27%
3.76
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.97
1.89
Rosenborg xG
5.13
20%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
15%
6.59
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
3%
33.76
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.89 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
Rosenborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Lillestrom
1
Draws
3
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Rosenborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 5, Rosenborg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Rosenborg?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Lillestrom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 9, as Lillestrom and Rosenborg drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.09 xG and Rosenborg 1.89 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.76 / defence 1.37 against Rosenborg attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 2/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 20% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 54%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.