Lillestrom 0-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Åråsen plays host to Lillestrom versus Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 9 August 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lillestrom's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 3L across 7 games at Åråsen this term (1.71 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lillestrom are significantly better at Åråsen than their overall form suggests.
Rosenborg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 5 wins for Lillestrom, 3 for Rosenborg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 40% versus Rosenborg 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 53% | Rosenborg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.83 xG and Rosenborg 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 1.021 / defence 1.107 | Rosenborg attack 0.907 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.361. Data: 15 Lillestrom games / 45 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 49% | Draw 23% | Rosenborg 29%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Rosenborg 3.45. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lillestrom 71% | Rosenborg 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Åråsen • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 49% | Draw 23% | Rosenborg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Lillestrom 1.83 / Rosenborg 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 1.021 / def 1.107 | Rosenborg attack 0.907 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Rosenborg xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Rosenborg kick off?
Lillestrom vs Rosenborg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Åråsen.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Lillestrom 0 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Lillestrom vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Rosenborg part of?
Lillestrom vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 49% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Lillestrom and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Rosenborg?
Record (9 meetings): Lillestrom 5W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 3W.
What form are Lillestrom and Rosenborg in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (0.91x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
49%
2.06
23%
4.39
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
3.20
1.37
Rosenborg xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
5%
21.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.37 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 8W 1D 6L from 15 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 7L across 15 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lillestrom by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rosenborg heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 4W 0D 3L from 7 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 1W 1D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 8W 1D 6L in their last 15 games (1.67 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Rosenborg away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.71 PPG; Rosenborg away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Lillestrom or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lillestrom have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lillestrom
1
Draws
4
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 5, Rosenborg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Lillestrom 0-2 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Rosenborg?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 71%, Rosenborg 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Lillestrom and 43% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 14% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lillestrom vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Lillestrom's matches and 43% of Rosenborg's.
Do Lillestrom and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Lillestrom 0-2 at Åråsen, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.83 xG and Rosenborg 1.37 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 1.02 / defence 1.11 against Rosenborg attack 0.91 / defence 1.07, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 49% | Draw 23% | Rosenborg 29%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Rosenborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 53%, Rosenborg 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rosenborg's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Rosenborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.