Lillestrom 2-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lillestrom host Haugesund at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 June 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haugesund's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.00 xG and Haugesund 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.713 / defence 1.170 | Haugesund attack 0.800 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.244. Lillestrom's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Lillestrom games / 34 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 30% | Draw 32% | Haugesund 38%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Haugesund 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haugesund at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Jun 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 30% | Draw 32% | Haugesund 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Lillestrom 1.00 / Haugesund 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.713 / def 1.170 | Haugesund attack 0.800 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Haugesund xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Haugesund kick off?
Lillestrom vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 13 June 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Lillestrom 2 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Lillestrom vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Haugesund part of?
Lillestrom vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 30% chance of winning, Haugesund a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lillestrom and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lillestrom and Haugesund in?
Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Haugesund away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lillestrom's attack rating (0.71) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
30%
3.34
32%
3.14
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.16
1.16
Haugesund xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
9%
10.70
14%
7.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.16 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
Haugesund
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Lillestrom won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lillestrom's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Lillestrom
0
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Haugesund?
From 8 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 6, Haugesund have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when Lillestrom 0-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Haugesund?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Lillestrom defy the odds to beat Haugesund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Haugesund 2-1 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.00 xG and Haugesund 1.16 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lillestrom beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.71 / defence 1.17 against Haugesund attack 0.80 / defence 0.89, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 30% | Draw 32% | Haugesund 38%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lillestrom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.