Lillestrom 0-2 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Brann (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lillestrom face Brann.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lillestrom and Brann meet at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lillestrom have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lillestrom at Åråsen Stadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Lillestrom are significantly better at Åråsen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Brann (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Brann's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Brann arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lillestrom lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Brann winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 60% versus Brann 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 63% | Brann 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.14 xG and Brann 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.977 / defence 1.355 | Brann attack 0.970 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.382. Data: 36 Lillestrom games / 37 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 24% | Draw 23% | Brann 53%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Brann 1.89. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lillestrom 50% | Brann 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 24% | Draw 23% | Brann 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Lillestrom 1.14 / Brann 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.977 / def 1.355 | Brann attack 0.970 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Brann (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Brann xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Brann kick off?
Lillestrom vs Brann kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Brann?
Lillestrom 0 - 2 Brann.
Where is Lillestrom vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Brann part of?
Lillestrom vs Brann is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 24% chance of winning, Brann a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lillestrom and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Brann?
Record (4 meetings): Lillestrom 0W | Draws 2 | Brann 2W.
What form are Lillestrom and Brann in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Brann (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Brann's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.97x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
24%
4.20
23%
4.34
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.96
1.81
Brann xG
4.20
24%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
16%
6.14
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
4%
25.77
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.81 for Brann, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Lillestrom have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 13W 4D 13L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Brann's form line: 19W 4D 7L from 30 games, 2.03 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lillestrom.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lillestrom have posted 1.87 PPG from 15 outings (9W 1D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Lillestrom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Brann have gone 7W 2D 6L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Brann's season.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.83 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Brann in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 13W 4D 13L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Brann have gone 19W 4D 7L in their last 30 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Brann away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.87 PPG; Brann away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Lillestrom or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lillestrom have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Brann in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Lillestrom
2
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Brann?
From 6 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 0, Brann have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Brann 2-1 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 67%, Brann 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Lillestrom and 47% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lillestrom's games and 47% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Lillestrom's matches and 47% of Brann's.
Do Lillestrom and Brann tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Brann in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Lillestrom 0-2 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.14 xG and Brann 1.81 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.98 / defence 1.35 against Brann attack 0.97 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 24% | Draw 23% | Brann 53%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 63%, Brann 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Brann (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.