Kristiansund BK 0-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Viking (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kristiansund BK face Viking.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kristiansund BK host Viking at Nordmøre stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Nordmøre stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Nordmøre stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Viking have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Viking are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Viking have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Kristiansund BK's 1 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2024, ended 0–2 with Viking winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Viking have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Viking in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 52% versus Viking 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 45% | Viking 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.32 xG and Viking 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.789 / defence 1.117 | Viking attack 1.323 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.289. Kristiansund BK's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Viking have an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — the away xG of 1.91 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 27 Kristiansund BK games / 57 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 26% | Draw 22% | Viking 51%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | Viking 1.96. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 70% | Viking 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Nordmøre stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 26% | Draw 22% | Viking 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.32 / Viking 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.789 / def 1.117 | Viking attack 1.323 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Viking (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Viking xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Viking kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Nordmøre stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Kristiansund BK 0 - 1 Viking.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Nordmøre stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Viking part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Viking is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 26% chance of winning, Viking a 51% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Viking?
Record (6 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 0 | Viking 5W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Viking in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Viking (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 0.79x the league average against Viking's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
26%
3.78
22%
4.48
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.22
1.91
Viking xG
3.78
26%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
15%
6.72
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
4%
25.38
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.91 for Viking, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kristiansund BK come into this having played 29 games, going 8W 10D 11L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.83 PPG from 29 outings (15W 8D 6L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kristiansund BK's home form reads 5W 6D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.57 points per game from 14 outings (6W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.03 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 66%.
Last 29 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Viking in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 8W 10D 11L in their last 29 games (1.17 PPG), while Viking have gone 15W 8D 6L in their last 29 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.50 PPG; Viking away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Viking go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Viking specifically: 1W 0D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kristiansund BK
0
Draws
9
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 1, Viking have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Kristiansund BK 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 64%, Viking 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Kristiansund BK and 79% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Kristiansund BK's games and 64% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 79% of Viking's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Viking tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Viking in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Kristiansund BK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Kristiansund BK 0-1 at Nordmøre stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.32 xG and Viking 1.91 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kristiansund BK fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Viking landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.79 / defence 1.12 against Viking attack 1.32 / defence 1.09, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 26% | Draw 22% | Viking 51%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 45%, Viking 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Viking's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.