Kristiansund BK 2-1 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 43%, yet in-form Valerenga provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kristiansund BK and Valerenga meet at Kristiansund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kristiansund BK's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kristiansund BK have posted 6W 2D 2L at Kristiansund Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Kristiansund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Valerenga (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Valerenga's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Valerenga arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Valerenga in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Kristiansund BK, 0 for Valerenga and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2021, ended 2–1 with Kristiansund BK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Kristiansund BK — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Valerenga — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 64% and Valerenga 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 61% | Valerenga 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.60 xG and Valerenga 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.047 / defence 1.070 | Valerenga attack 0.907 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.261. Data: 59 Kristiansund BK games / 59 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 43% | Draw 30% | Valerenga 26%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Valerenga 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kristiansund BK at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Valerenga (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 70% | Valerenga 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 43% | Draw 30% | Valerenga 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.60 / Valerenga 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.047 / def 1.070 | Valerenga attack 0.907 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Valerenga xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga?
Kristiansund BK 2 - 1 Valerenga.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 43% chance of winning, Valerenga a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Valerenga?
Record (3 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 2 | Valerenga 0W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Valerenga in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Valerenga (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kristiansund BK's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Valerenga's attack (0.91x) against Kristiansund BK's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
43%
2.31
30%
3.30
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.83
1.22
Valerenga xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
5%
18.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.22 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Kristiansund BK have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 25W 16D 18L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Valerenga's form line: 26W 22D 11L from 59 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Kristiansund BK against 1.69 for Valerenga. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kristiansund BK have posted 1.86 PPG from 29 outings (16W 6D 7L).
On the road, Valerenga have gone 9W 10D 10L from 29 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.63 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Valerenga in 68%.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 25W 16D 18L in their last 59 games (1.54 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 26W 22D 11L in their last 59 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Valerenga away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.86 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Valerenga have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 3-0 on 10 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valerenga — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kristiansund BK
2
Draws
4
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 4, Valerenga have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Valerenga 3-1 Kristiansund BK.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 66%, Valerenga 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Kristiansund BK) and 52% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Kristiansund BK's games and 62% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Kristiansund BK's recent games and 52% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kristiansund BK and Valerenga tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kristiansund BK edge out Valerenga 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Valerenga 2-1 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.60 xG and Valerenga 1.22 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.05 / defence 1.07 against Valerenga attack 0.91 / defence 0.89, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 43% | Draw 30% | Valerenga 26%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 61%, Valerenga 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Valerenga's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.54 PPG, Valerenga 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kristiansund BK win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.