Kristiansund BK 3-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 11 as Kristiansund BK welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Nordmøre stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 June 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kristiansund BK have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Nordmøre stadion this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Nordmøre stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kristiansund BK 1.00 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kristiansund BK register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Kristiansund BK, 2 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 59% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kristiansund BK 59% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.50 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.990 / defence 1.124 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.205 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.523. Sarpsborg 08 FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.205 — the away xG of 2.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Kristiansund BK games / 40 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 28% | Draw 21% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 51%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 3.57 | Draw 4.76 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.96. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 70% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Nordmøre stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 28% | Draw 21% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.50 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.990 / def 1.124 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.205 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Nordmøre stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Kristiansund BK 3 - 1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Nordmøre stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 28% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 51% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (5 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 2 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 0.99x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 2.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
28%
3.57
21%
4.71
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.56
2.06
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
3.57
28%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
13%
7.86
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
4%
28.07
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 2.06 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kristiansund BK's recent record stands at 6W 8D 18L from 32 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 13L across 32 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sarpsborg 08 FF by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kristiansund BK heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kristiansund BK have managed 4W 5D 7L from 16 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 5W 3D 8L across 16 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.88 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 72%.
Last 32 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Early Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 6W 8D 18L in their last 32 games (0.81 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 13W 6D 13L in their last 32 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.06 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kristiansund BK
4
Draws
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 4, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kristiansund BK at 69%, Sarpsborg 08 FF at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Kristiansund BK and 62% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Kristiansund BK's games and 62% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 62% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kristiansund BK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-1 at Nordmøre stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.50 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.06 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kristiansund BK beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.99 / defence 1.12 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.21 / defence 1.13, drawn from 11/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 28% | Draw 21% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 51%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Kristiansund BK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 59%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sarpsborg 08 FF arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Kristiansund BK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.