Kristiansund BK 2-0 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord meet at Kristiansund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 July 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kristiansund BK's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kristiansund BK have posted 7W 1D 2L at Kristiansund Stadion — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sandefjord have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Kristiansund BK's favour (2.00 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Kristiansund BK, 0 for Sandefjord and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2020, ended 2–0 with Kristiansund BK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Kristiansund BK — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sandefjord — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 68% versus Sandefjord 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 58% | Sandefjord 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.71 xG and Sandefjord 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.915 / defence 0.957 | Sandefjord attack 1.041 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.139. Data: 42 Kristiansund BK games / 40 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 49% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 23%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Sandefjord 4.35. Kristiansund BK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kristiansund BK are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Kristiansund BK 50% | Sandefjord 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jul 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 49% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.71 / Sandefjord 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.915 / def 0.957 | Sandefjord attack 1.041 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sandefjord xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 July 2021 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord?
Kristiansund BK 2 - 0 Sandefjord.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 49% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord?
Record (1 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 0 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kristiansund BK's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (1.04x) against Kristiansund BK's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 42/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
49%
2.05
28%
3.62
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.84
1.14
Sandefjord xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
4%
23.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.14 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Kristiansund BK have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 17W 13D 10L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sandefjord's form line: 14W 8D 18L from 40 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Kristiansund BK against 1.25 for Sandefjord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kristiansund BK have posted 1.79 PPG from 19 outings (10W 4D 5L).
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 8W 1D 10L from 19 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.12 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sandefjord in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 17W 13D 10L in their last 40 games (1.60 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 14W 8D 18L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Sandefjord away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.79 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Kristiansund BK or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kristiansund BK have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 6-0 on 20 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kristiansund BK have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kristiansund BK
1
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 4, Sandefjord have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sandefjord 2-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 63%, Sandefjord 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Kristiansund BK) and 58% (Sandefjord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sandefjord in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Kristiansund BK's games and 53% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 58% of Sandefjord's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kristiansund BK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Sandefjord 2-0 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.71 xG and Sandefjord 1.14 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sandefjord landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Sandefjord attack 1.04 / defence 1.10, drawn from 42/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 49% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 23%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 58%, Sandefjord 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Sandefjord's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.60 PPG, Sandefjord 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kristiansund BK win broke the near-deadlock. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.