Kristiansund BK 4-1 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Rosenborg (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kristiansund BK face Rosenborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kristiansund BK host Rosenborg at Kristiansund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 June 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansund BK have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Kristiansund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Rosenborg — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Rosenborg's 2.30 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Kristiansund BK's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Rosenborg have the better historical record — 4 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Kristiansund BK.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Rosenborg have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 50% versus Rosenborg 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 47% | Rosenborg 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 0.81 xG and Rosenborg 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.668 / defence 0.941 | Rosenborg attack 0.918 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.472. Kristiansund BK's attack strength of 0.668 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Kristiansund BK games / 41 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 24% | Draw 29% | Rosenborg 47%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Rosenborg 2.13. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kristiansund BK 50% | Rosenborg 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jun 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 24% | Draw 29% | Rosenborg 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Kristiansund BK 0.81 / Rosenborg 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.668 / def 0.941 | Rosenborg attack 0.918 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.472 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Rosenborg xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 June 2025 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Kristiansund BK 4 - 1 Rosenborg.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 24% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg?
Record (8 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 3 | Rosenborg 4W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kristiansund BK's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
24%
4.21
29%
3.44
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.08
1.27
Rosenborg xG
4.21
24%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
7%
15.01
21%
4.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 15.8 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.27 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kristiansund BK's recent record stands at 9W 10D 13L from 32 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 17W 5D 10L across 32 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kristiansund BK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kristiansund BK have managed 5W 6D 5L from 16 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 7W 3D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.81 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 9W 10D 13L in their last 32 games (1.16 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 17W 5D 10L in their last 32 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Rosenborg away?
Rosenborg's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.31 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2024, when Rosenborg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kristiansund BK
3
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 2, Rosenborg have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Rosenborg 3-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 56%, Rosenborg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Kristiansund BK and 69% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Kristiansund BK's games and 62% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 69% of Rosenborg's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kristiansund BK run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Rosenborg 4-1 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 0.81 xG and Rosenborg 1.27 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Kristiansund BK beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.67 / defence 0.94 against Rosenborg attack 0.92 / defence 0.81, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 24% | Draw 29% | Rosenborg 47%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Kristiansund BK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 47%, Rosenborg 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Kristiansund BK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.