Kristiansund BK 1-3 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 12 as Kristiansund BK welcome Lillestrom to Kristiansund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 July 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK at Kristiansund Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Kristiansund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Lillestrom's 2.30 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of Kristiansund BK's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Kristiansund BK have won 1, Lillestrom 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Kristiansund BK trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Lillestrom trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 46% versus Lillestrom 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 54% | Lillestrom 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.30 xG and Lillestrom 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.791 / defence 1.225 | Lillestrom attack 1.087 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.412. Kristiansund BK's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Kristiansund BK games / 42 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 27% | Draw 23% | Lillestrom 51%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | Lillestrom 1.96. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 70% | Lillestrom 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Jul 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 27% | Draw 23% | Lillestrom 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.30 / Lillestrom 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.791 / def 1.225 | Lillestrom attack 1.087 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Lillestrom xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 3 July 2022 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom?
Kristiansund BK 1 - 3 Lillestrom.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 27% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom?
Record (2 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 1 | Lillestrom 0W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Lillestrom (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 0.79x the league average against Lillestrom's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
27%
3.77
23%
4.44
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.18
1.88
Lillestrom xG
3.77
27%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
15%
6.55
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
4%
24.66
14%
7.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.88 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kristiansund BK come into this having played 39 games, going 14W 5D 20L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lillestrom sit at 1.87 PPG from 39 outings (21W 10D 8L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kristiansund BK's home form reads 10W 3D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Kristiansund BK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lillestrom have taken 1.63 points per game from 19 outings (8W 7D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.79 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 14W 5D 20L in their last 39 games (1.21 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 21W 10D 8L in their last 39 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Lillestrom away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.74 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Kristiansund BK or Lillestrom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kristiansund BK have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Lillestrom in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kristiansund BK have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Kristiansund BK
2
Draws
1
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom?
From 7 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 4, Lillestrom have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Lillestrom 1-2 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kristiansund BK at 53%, Lillestrom at 84%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Kristiansund BK and 79% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Kristiansund BK's games and 84% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 79% of Lillestrom's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lillestrom cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Kristiansund BK 1-3 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.30 xG and Lillestrom 1.88 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lillestrom outscored their 1.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.79 / defence 1.23 against Lillestrom attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 39/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 27% | Draw 23% | Lillestrom 51%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 54%, Lillestrom 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Lillestrom's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.