Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kristiansund Stadion plays host to Kristiansund BK versus Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 31 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Kristiansund BK (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's home record at Kristiansund Stadion: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Haugesund have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Kristiansund BK against 2.00 for Haugesund. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Kristiansund BK 0W, Haugesund 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2021, ended 0–3 with Haugesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Kristiansund BK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 65% versus Haugesund 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 56% | Haugesund 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.46 xG and Haugesund 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.931 / defence 0.847 | Haugesund attack 0.714 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.167. Data: 43 Kristiansund BK games / 43 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 52% | Draw 32% | Haugesund 15%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 1.92 | Draw 3.12 | Haugesund 6.67. Kristiansund BK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kristiansund BK as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kristiansund BK 50% | Haugesund 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 52% | Draw 32% | Haugesund 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.46 / Haugesund 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.931 / def 0.847 | Haugesund attack 0.714 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Haugesund xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Kristiansund Stadion.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 52% chance of winning, Haugesund a 15% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Haugesund?
Record (3 meetings): Kristiansund BK 0W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 2W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Haugesund in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Haugesund (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 0.93x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.71x) against Kristiansund BK's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
52%
1.91
32%
3.09
15%
6.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.16
0.71
Haugesund xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
6.55
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
4%
28.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 11.8 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 0.71 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kristiansund BK come into this having played 43 games, going 19W 14D 10L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.42 PPG from 43 outings (17W 10D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Kristiansund BK against 1.42 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kristiansund BK's home form reads 11W 5D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (5W 6D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.33 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 19W 14D 10L in their last 43 games (1.65 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 17W 10D 16L in their last 43 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Haugesund away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.81 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Kristiansund BK or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kristiansund BK have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Haugesund in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 3-0 on 20 Jun 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kristiansund BK
3
Draws
5
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 2, Haugesund have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Kristiansund BK 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Haugesund?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 62%, Haugesund 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kristiansund BK) and 52% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Haugesund in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Kristiansund BK's games and 52% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Kristiansund BK's recent games and 52% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kristiansund BK and Haugesund tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kristiansund BK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 17, as Kristiansund BK and Haugesund drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.46 xG and Haugesund 0.71 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.93 / defence 0.85 against Haugesund attack 0.71 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 52% | Draw 32% | Haugesund 15%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 56%, Haugesund 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.65 PPG, Haugesund 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.