Haugesund 3-1 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haugesund host Stabaek at Haugesund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 August 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Haugesund — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund at Haugesund Stadion this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 home games — 1.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stabaek stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek away from home this season: 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Haugesund at 1.20 PPG versus Stabaek's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 27% versus Stabaek 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 36% | Stabaek 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 0.93 xG and Stabaek 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.673 / defence 1.253 | Stabaek attack 0.890 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.319. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Haugesund games / 11 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 24% | Draw 27% | Stabaek 49%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Stabaek 2.04. Stabaek hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stabaek at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stabaek offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 33% | Stabaek 80%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 24% | Draw 27% | Stabaek 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Haugesund 0.93 / Stabaek 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.673 / def 1.253 | Stabaek attack 0.890 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Stabaek xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Stabaek kick off?
Haugesund vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 2 August 2020 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Stabaek?
Haugesund 3 - 1 Stabaek.
Where is Haugesund vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Stabaek part of?
Haugesund vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 24% chance of winning, Stabaek a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Haugesund and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Stabaek?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haugesund and Stabaek in?
Haugesund (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Stabaek (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (0.67) and Stabaek's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
24%
4.23
27%
3.70
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.40
1.47
Stabaek xG
4.23
24%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
5%
18.38
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.3 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.47 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund's recent record stands at 3W 3D 5L from 11 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 2L across 11 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stabaek by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haugesund heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Haugesund have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stabaek's away record stands at 2W 2D 1L across 5 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.36 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haugesund have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Stabaek in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 4W 5D 2L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Stabaek away?
Stabaek's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.40 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Stabaek been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Stabaek in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 December 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Stabaek won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Haugesund
1
Draws
3
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 2, Stabaek have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2023, when Haugesund 3-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Stabaek?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 20%, Stabaek 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Haugesund and 80% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Haugesund have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Stabaek?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Haugesund's recent matches and 80% of Stabaek's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Haugesund's matches and 80% of Stabaek's.
Do Haugesund and Stabaek tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haugesund cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Stabaek 3-1 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 0.93 xG and Stabaek 1.47 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.67 / defence 1.25 against Stabaek attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 24% | Draw 27% | Stabaek 49%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Haugesund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 36%, Stabaek 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Stabaek's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stabaek arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Haugesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Stabaek (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.