Ham-Kam 3-2 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Briskeby Arena plays host to Ham-Kam versus Stabaek in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 23 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ham-Kam have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Briskeby Arena, Ham-Kam have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Ham-Kam are significantly better at Briskeby Arena than their overall form suggests.
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's away record: 1W 1D 4L from 6 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Stabaek — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 43% versus Stabaek 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 71% | Stabaek 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.46 xG and Stabaek 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.737 / defence 0.970 | Stabaek attack 0.818 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.252. Ham-Kam's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Ham-Kam games / 14 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 48% | Draw 26% | Stabaek 26%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Stabaek 3.85. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ham-Kam 50% | Stabaek 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 48% | Draw 26% | Stabaek 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Ham-Kam 1.46 / Stabaek 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.737 / def 0.970 | Stabaek attack 0.818 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Stabaek xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Stabaek kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Stabaek kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 July 2023 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Stabaek?
Ham-Kam 3 - 2 Stabaek.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Stabaek part of?
Ham-Kam vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 48% chance of winning, Stabaek a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ham-Kam and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Stabaek?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ham-Kam and Stabaek in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Stabaek (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.74x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (0.82x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.78
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.45
0.99
Stabaek xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
6%
16.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 0.99 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 4W 1D 9L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek's form line: 4W 4D 6L from 14 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Ham-Kam against 1.14 for Stabaek. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
On the road, Stabaek have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stabaek's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.07 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 4W 1D 9L in their last 14 games (0.93 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Stabaek away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.17 PPG; Stabaek away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ham-Kam
0
Draws
1
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Stabaek?
From 2 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 1, Stabaek have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2023, when Stabaek 5-2 Ham-Kam.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ham-Kam see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 33%, Stabaek 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Ham-Kam and 83% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 50% of games; Stabaek in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Stabaek?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 67% of Stabaek's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ham-Kam's matches and 83% of Stabaek's.
Do Ham-Kam and Stabaek tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ham-Kam edge out Stabaek 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Stabaek 3-2 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.46 xG and Stabaek 0.99 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ham-Kam beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stabaek outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.74 / defence 0.97 against Stabaek attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 48% | Draw 26% | Stabaek 26%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 71%, Stabaek 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Stabaek's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 0.93 PPG, Stabaek 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.