Ham-Kam 3-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 27 as Ham-Kam welcome Sandefjord to Briskeby Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ham-Kam — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ham-Kam have posted 4W 2D 4L at Briskeby Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Ham-Kam) versus 1.20 (Sandefjord). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Ham-Kam: 5 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Sandefjord, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Sandefjord winning.
The historical record gives Ham-Kam a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ham-Kam trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sandefjord trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 48% versus Sandefjord 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 46% | Sandefjord 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.51 xG and Sandefjord 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.903 / defence 1.015 | Sandefjord attack 1.031 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.751 / away 1.404. Data: 56 Ham-Kam games / 56 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 38% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 36%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Sandefjord 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 80% | Sandefjord 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 38% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Ham-Kam 1.51 / Sandefjord 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.903 / def 1.015 | Sandefjord attack 1.031 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.751 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Sandefjord xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Ham-Kam 3 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord part of?
Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 38% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ham-Kam and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord?
Record (7 meetings): Ham-Kam 5W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 1W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Sandefjord in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.90x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
38%
2.65
26%
3.79
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.98
1.47
Sandefjord xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
9%
11.54
8%
12.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.47 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ham-Kam come into this having played 56 games, going 16W 16D 24L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.30 PPG from 56 outings (21W 10D 25L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.14 PPG, Sandefjord on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ham-Kam's home form reads 9W 7D 12L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.79 points per game from 28 outings (5W 7D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.54 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 16W 16D 24L in their last 56 games (1.14 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 21W 10D 25L in their last 56 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Sandefjord away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.21 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2022, when Ham-Kam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 6, Sandefjord have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sandefjord 2-2 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sandefjord see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 50%, Sandefjord 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ham-Kam) and 64% (Sandefjord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ham-Kam's games and 71% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Ham-Kam's matches and 64% of Sandefjord's.
Do Ham-Kam and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ham-Kam cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Sandefjord 3-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.51 xG and Sandefjord 1.47 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ham-Kam beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Sandefjord attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 38% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 36%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 46%, Sandefjord 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.14 PPG, Sandefjord 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.