Ham-Kam 1-1 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Aalesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ham-Kam and Aalesund meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Briskeby Arena this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Ham-Kam are significantly better at Briskeby Arena than their overall form suggests.
Aalesund have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 3L across 7 road games this term (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ham-Kam lead 2W to 0W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Aalesund — key trading statistics (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ham-Kam 59% and Aalesund 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ham-Kam 76% | Aalesund 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 2.38 xG and Aalesund 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 1.017 / defence 1.107 | Aalesund attack 0.830 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.361. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.392 — this is suppressing Ham-Kam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Ham-Kam games / 15 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 62% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 19%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | Aalesund 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Ham-Kam (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.38 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.63 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 60% | Aalesund 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 62% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 65% | xG Ham-Kam 2.38 / Aalesund 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 1.017 / def 1.107 | Aalesund attack 0.830 / def 1.392 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Aalesund xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Aalesund kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Aalesund kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Ham-Kam 1 - 1 Aalesund.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Aalesund part of?
Ham-Kam vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 62% chance of winning, Aalesund a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Ham-Kam and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Aalesund?
Record (5 meetings): Ham-Kam 2W | Draws 3 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Aalesund in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Aalesund (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (1.02) and Aalesund's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 2.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.83x) against Ham-Kam's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
62%
1.60
19%
5.33
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.63
1.25
Aalesund xG
1.60
62%
Home win
5.33
19%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
9%
10.79
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
2%
57.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.25 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ham-Kam come into this having played 17 games, going 7W 3D 7L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Aalesund sit at 0.94 PPG from 17 outings (3W 7D 7L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Aalesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ham-Kam's home form reads 5W 0D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Ham-Kam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Aalesund have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.47 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund in 76%.
Last 17 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 7W 3D 7L in their last 17 games (1.41 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 3W 7D 7L in their last 17 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Aalesund away?
Ham-Kam's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 2.14 PPG; Aalesund away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
4
Draws
0
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Aalesund?
From 6 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 2, Aalesund have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Ham-Kam 1-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Aalesund?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 57%, Aalesund 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Ham-Kam and 57% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Aalesund in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Aalesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Ham-Kam's games and 57% of Aalesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Ham-Kam's matches and 57% of Aalesund's.
Do Ham-Kam and Aalesund tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ham-Kam and Aalesund share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam and Aalesund finished level at 1-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 2.38 xG and Aalesund 1.25 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ham-Kam fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 1.02 / defence 1.11 against Aalesund attack 0.83 / defence 1.39, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 62% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 19%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 76%, Aalesund 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Aalesund's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ham-Kam arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Aalesund (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.