Fredrikstad 1-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 41%, yet in-form Viking provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fredrikstad vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fredrikstad have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Fredrikstad at Fredrikstad Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Viking (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Viking are 1.40 PPG clear of Fredrikstad in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.60 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fredrikstad register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Viking in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Fredrikstad 1W, Viking 2W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Viking winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fredrikstad — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Viking — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 42% versus Viking 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 40% | Viking 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.41 xG and Viking 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 1.018 / defence 0.959 | Viking attack 1.028 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.232. Data: 35 Fredrikstad games / 35 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 41% | Draw 28% | Viking 31%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Viking 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fredrikstad are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Viking (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 70% | Viking 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 41% | Draw 28% | Viking 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Fredrikstad 1.41 / Viking 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 1.018 / def 0.959 | Viking attack 1.028 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Viking xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Viking kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Viking kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Viking?
Fredrikstad 1 - 2 Viking.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Viking part of?
Fredrikstad vs Viking is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 41% chance of winning, Viking a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fredrikstad and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Viking?
Record (4 meetings): Fredrikstad 1W | Draws 1 | Viking 2W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Viking in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Viking (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fredrikstad's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.03x) against Fredrikstad's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.58
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.63
1.22
Viking xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
8%
13.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.22 for Viking, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Fredrikstad have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 25W 18D 17L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Viking's form line: 38W 14D 8L from 60 games, 2.13 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fredrikstad.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fredrikstad have posted 1.73 PPG from 30 outings (14W 10D 6L).
On the road, Viking have gone 16W 8D 6L from 30 away games — 1.87 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.30 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 68%.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Viking in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 25W 18D 17L in their last 60 games (1.55 PPG), while Viking have gone 38W 14D 8L in their last 60 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.73 PPG; Viking away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Viking in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Viking go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 3-0 on 22 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Fredrikstad
1
Draws
3
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Viking?
From 5 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 1, Viking have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Fredrikstad 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 47%, Viking 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Fredrikstad) and 70% (Viking). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Fredrikstad's games and 73% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fredrikstad vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Fredrikstad's matches and 70% of Viking's.
Do Fredrikstad and Viking tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Viking in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Viking defy the odds to beat Fredrikstad 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Fredrikstad 1-2 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.41 xG and Viking 1.22 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Viking attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 41% | Draw 28% | Viking 31%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Viking win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, Viking 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.