Fredrikstad 1-0 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Sandefjord travel to Fredrikstad Stadion to take on Fredrikstad. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Fredrikstad have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fredrikstad have posted 4W 3D 3L at Fredrikstad Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Fredrikstad are significantly better at Fredrikstad Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sandefjord — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Fredrikstad) versus 0.90 (Sandefjord). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Fredrikstad have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Sandefjord have managed just 0 wins.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Fredrikstad a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fredrikstad trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sandefjord trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 50% versus Sandefjord 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 48% | Sandefjord 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.42 xG and Sandefjord 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.855 / defence 1.084 | Sandefjord attack 0.933 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.289. Data: 44 Fredrikstad games / 44 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 39% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 34%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Sandefjord 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fredrikstad as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 80% | Sandefjord 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 39% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Fredrikstad 1.42 / Sandefjord 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.855 / def 1.084 | Sandefjord attack 0.933 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Sandefjord xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 August 2026 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
Fredrikstad 1 - 0 Sandefjord.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord part of?
Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 39% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fredrikstad and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Sandefjord?
Record (5 meetings): Fredrikstad 3W | Draws 2 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Sandefjord in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fredrikstad's attack rating (0.85) and Sandefjord's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Fredrikstad's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
39%
2.53
26%
3.78
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.72
1.30
Sandefjord xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
8%
12.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.30 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fredrikstad's recent record stands at 15W 11D 18L from 44 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sandefjord, meanwhile, have gone 19W 6D 19L across 44 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fredrikstad on 1.27 PPG, Sandefjord on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fredrikstad have managed 10W 5D 6L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sandefjord's away record stands at 6W 2D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.55 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 15W 11D 18L in their last 44 games (1.27 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 19W 6D 19L in their last 44 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Sandefjord away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.67 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Fredrikstad's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
0
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Sandefjord?
From 6 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 4, Sandefjord have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Fredrikstad 1-0 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Sandefjord?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fredrikstad at 62%, Sandefjord at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Fredrikstad) and 71% (Sandefjord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Fredrikstad's games and 76% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Fredrikstad's matches and 71% of Sandefjord's.
Do Fredrikstad and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fredrikstad edge out Sandefjord 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Sandefjord 1-0 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.42 xG and Sandefjord 1.30 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sandefjord landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.85 / defence 1.08 against Sandefjord attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 39% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 34%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 48%, Sandefjord 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Sandefjord's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fredrikstad 1.27 PPG, Sandefjord 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fredrikstad win broke the near-deadlock. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.