Fredrikstad 3-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 27 as Fredrikstad welcome Kristiansund BK to Fredrikstad Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Fredrikstad have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad at Fredrikstad Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kristiansund BK — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Fredrikstad) versus 1.20 (Kristiansund BK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fredrikstad, 1 for Kristiansund BK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Fredrikstad winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fredrikstad trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Kristiansund BK trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 43% versus Kristiansund BK 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 39% | Kristiansund BK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.86 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.882 / defence 0.967 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.770 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.751 / away 1.404. Kristiansund BK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Fredrikstad's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Fredrikstad games / 56 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 56% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 20%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Kristiansund BK 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Fredrikstad (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fredrikstad as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 60% | Kristiansund BK 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 56% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Fredrikstad 1.86 / Kristiansund BK 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.882 / def 0.967 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.770 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.751 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Kristiansund BK xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK?
Fredrikstad 3 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 56% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK?
Record (3 meetings): Fredrikstad 1W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fredrikstad's attack at 0.88x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Fredrikstad's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.10
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.91
1.04
Kristiansund BK xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
3%
32.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.04 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fredrikstad's recent record stands at 23W 18D 15L from 56 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 23L across 56 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fredrikstad on 1.55 PPG, Kristiansund BK on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fredrikstad have managed 13W 10D 5L from 28 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 7W 7D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.11 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 23W 18D 15L in their last 56 games (1.55 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 16W 17D 23L in their last 56 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.75 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Fredrikstad's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Fredrikstad
1
Draws
2
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK?
From 6 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 3, Kristiansund BK have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Fredrikstad 1-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 46%, Kristiansund BK 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Fredrikstad) and 46% (Kristiansund BK).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 29% of games; Kristiansund BK in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Kristiansund BK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 54% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 46% of Kristiansund BK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fredrikstad cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Kristiansund BK 3-1 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.86 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.04 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fredrikstad beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.88 / defence 0.97 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.77 / defence 1.21, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 56% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 20%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 39%, Kristiansund BK 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fredrikstad 1.55 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fredrikstad win broke the near-deadlock. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.