Fredrikstad 3-1 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo meet at Fredrikstad Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fredrikstad's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Fredrikstad's home record at Fredrikstad Stadion: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
KFUM Oslo have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
KFUM Oslo's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fredrikstad lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with KFUM Oslo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fredrikstad — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
KFUM Oslo — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 42% versus KFUM Oslo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 40% | KFUM Oslo 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.60 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.955 / defence 0.982 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.948 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.816 / away 1.272. Data: 31 Fredrikstad games / 31 KFUM Oslo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 47% | Draw 25% | KFUM Oslo 28%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | KFUM Oslo 3.57. Fredrikstad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fredrikstad as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 70% | KFUM Oslo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 47% | Draw 25% | KFUM Oslo 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Fredrikstad 1.60 / KFUM Oslo 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.955 / def 0.982 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.948 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.816 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.18
KFUM Oslo xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo?
Fredrikstad 3 - 1 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 47% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo?
Record (4 meetings): Fredrikstad 2W | Draws 1 | KFUM Oslo 1W.
What form are Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. KFUM Oslo (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fredrikstad's attack rating (0.95) and KFUM Oslo's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KFUM Oslo's attack (0.95x) against Fredrikstad's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
47%
2.13
25%
4.04
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.78
1.18
KFUM Oslo xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
6%
17.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.18 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Fredrikstad have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 25W 18D 17L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
KFUM Oslo's form line: 17W 21D 22L from 60 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Fredrikstad against 1.20 for KFUM Oslo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fredrikstad have posted 1.73 PPG from 30 outings (14W 10D 6L).
On the road, KFUM Oslo have gone 10W 9D 11L from 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.28 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Current Season
KFUM Oslo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 25W 18D 17L in their last 60 games (1.55 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 17W 21D 22L in their last 60 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or KFUM Oslo away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.73 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or KFUM Oslo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, KFUM Oslo in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fredrikstad won 1-4 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Fredrikstad
1
Draws
1
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo?
From 5 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 3, KFUM Oslo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Fredrikstad 3-1 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 47%, KFUM Oslo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Fredrikstad) and 40% (KFUM Oslo).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 30% of games; KFUM Oslo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play KFUM Oslo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 50% of KFUM Oslo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 40% of KFUM Oslo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, KFUM Oslo in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fredrikstad cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over KFUM Oslo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat KFUM Oslo 3-1 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.60 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.18 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fredrikstad beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.95 / defence 0.92, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 47% | Draw 25% | KFUM Oslo 28%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, KFUM Oslo 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fredrikstad 1.55 PPG, KFUM Oslo 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fredrikstad win broke the near-deadlock. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.