Brann 0-3 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 42%, yet in-form Valerenga provide a compelling counter-argument — this Brann vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 2 as Brann welcome Valerenga to Brann Stadion. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 12 May 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Brann at Brann Stadion this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Valerenga — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Valerenga's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Valerenga's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Brann's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Brann, 2 for Valerenga and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2020, ended 1–5 with Valerenga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Brann in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 73% and Valerenga 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 57% | Valerenga 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.55 xG and Valerenga 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.966 / defence 1.012 | Valerenga attack 1.015 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.228. Data: 31 Brann games / 31 Valerenga games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Brann 42% | Draw 30% | Valerenga 29%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Valerenga 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brann at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Valerenga (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brann 90% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 May 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 42% | Draw 30% | Valerenga 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Brann 1.55 / Valerenga 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.966 / def 1.012 | Valerenga attack 1.015 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.717 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Brann (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Valerenga xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Valerenga kick off?
Brann vs Valerenga kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 12 May 2021 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Valerenga?
Brann 0 - 3 Valerenga.
Where is Brann vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Valerenga part of?
Brann vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 42% chance of winning, Valerenga a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Brann and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Valerenga?
Record (2 meetings): Brann 0W | Draws 0 | Valerenga 2W.
What form are Brann and Valerenga in?
Brann (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Valerenga (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Brann's attack at 0.97x the league average against Valerenga's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
42%
2.39
30%
3.38
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Brann xG
Total xG
2.81
1.26
Valerenga xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
6%
16.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Brann and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Brann and 1.26 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Brann have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 9W 9D 12L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Valerenga's form line: 15W 10D 5L from 30 games, 1.83 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Valerenga are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Brann.
Venue Form
On home soil, Brann have posted 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
On the road, Valerenga have gone 5W 5D 5L from 15 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Brann are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.70 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Valerenga in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 15W 10D 5L in their last 30 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Valerenga away?
Valerenga's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.13 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Brann or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Valerenga in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2020, when Valerenga won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Brann
0
Draws
5
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Valerenga?
From 9 meetings on record, Brann have won 4, Valerenga have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Brann 2-3 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brann see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brann at 87%, Valerenga at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Brann) and 47% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Valerenga in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 87% of Brann's games and 60% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Brann's recent games and 47% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brann and Valerenga tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Valerenga run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Brann.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Brann 0-3 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.55 xG and Valerenga 1.26 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Brann fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Valerenga outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Valerenga attack 1.01 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/31 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 42% | Draw 30% | Valerenga 29%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Valerenga win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 57%, Valerenga 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.