Brann vs Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 26 as Brann welcome Sandefjord to Brann Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann at Brann Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Brann 1.40 PPG, Sandefjord 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Brann register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Sandefjord in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Brann, 0 for Sandefjord and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 3–2 with Brann winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Brann in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 73% and Sandefjord 48% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 58% | Sandefjord 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.93 xG and Sandefjord 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.896 / defence 1.150 | Sandefjord attack 0.941 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.776 / away 1.250. Sandefjord bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Brann's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Brann games / 52 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 49% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 25%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Sandefjord 4.00. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brann 90% | Sandefjord 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 49% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Brann 1.93 / Sandefjord 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.896 / def 1.150 | Sandefjord attack 0.941 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.776 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Brann (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Sandefjord xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Sandefjord kick off?
Brann vs Sandefjord kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Brann Stadion.
Where is Brann vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Sandefjord part of?
Brann vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 49% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Brann and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Sandefjord?
Record (2 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Brann and Sandefjord in?
Brann (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Brann's attack at 0.90x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.81
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Brann xG
Total xG
3.28
1.35
Sandefjord xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
15%
6.87
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
4%
27.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Brann and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Brann and 1.35 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Brann have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 13W 16D 23L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sandefjord's form line: 16W 13D 23L from 52 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brann on 1.06 PPG, Sandefjord on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Brann have posted 1.08 PPG from 25 outings (6W 9D 10L).
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 9W 2D 14L from 25 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Brann are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.12 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 13W 16D 23L in their last 52 games (1.06 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 16W 13D 23L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Sandefjord away?
Sandefjord's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.08 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Brann or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brann and Sandefjord runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2025, when Brann won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Brann
5
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 4, Sandefjord have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Brann 0-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Sandefjord?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brann see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brann at 88%, Sandefjord at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Brann and 60% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Brann's games and 56% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Brann's matches and 60% of Sandefjord's.
Do Brann and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brann's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 26, as Brann and Sandefjord drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.93 xG and Sandefjord 1.35 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brann fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Sandefjord landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Sandefjord attack 0.94 / defence 1.21, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 49% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 25%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 58%, Sandefjord 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Sandefjord's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 1.06 PPG, Sandefjord 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.