Brann 0-0 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 5 as Brann welcome Sandefjord to Brann Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 8 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Brann haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Brann at Brann Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sandefjord's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Brann 0.90 PPG, Sandefjord 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Brann register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Sandefjord in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Brann, 0 for Sandefjord and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Brann in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 71% and Sandefjord 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Brann 61% | Sandefjord 87%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 2.02 xG and Sandefjord 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.185 / defence 0.975 | Sandefjord attack 0.807 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.191. Data: 5 Brann games / 34 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 60% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 15%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Sandefjord 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Brann (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brann 80% | Sandefjord 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 60% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Brann 2.02 / Sandefjord 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.185 / def 0.975 | Sandefjord attack 0.807 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Brann (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Brann xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Sandefjord xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Sandefjord kick off?
Brann vs Sandefjord kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 8 May 2023 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Sandefjord?
Brann 0 - 0 Sandefjord.
Where is Brann vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Sandefjord part of?
Brann vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 60% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Brann and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Sandefjord?
Record (3 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 2 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Brann and Sandefjord in?
Brann (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Brann's attack at 1.19x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
60%
1.66
25%
3.97
15%
6.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Brann xG
Total xG
2.95
0.94
Sandefjord xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
6.85
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
13%
7.51
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
2%
51.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Brann and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Brann and 0.94 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Brann have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 5W 12D 14L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. Brann haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sandefjord's form line: 6W 6D 19L from 31 games, 0.77 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brann on 0.87 PPG, Sandefjord on 0.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Brann have posted 1.20 PPG from 15 outings (4W 6D 5L).
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 4W 0D 11L from 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Brann are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.42 scored and 2.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Sandefjord in 68%.
Last 31 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Pre-Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 5W 12D 14L in their last 31 games (0.87 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 6W 6D 19L in their last 31 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Sandefjord away?
Brann's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.20 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brann and Sandefjord runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2025, when Brann won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Brann
5
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 4, Sandefjord have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Brann 0-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Sandefjord?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 80%, Sandefjord 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Brann and 87% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Brann's games and 47% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Brann's matches and 87% of Sandefjord's.
Do Brann and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brann's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann and Sandefjord finished level at 0-0 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 2.02 xG and Sandefjord 0.94 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brann fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Sandefjord landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.19 / defence 0.97 against Sandefjord attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 5/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 60% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 15%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 61%, Sandefjord 87%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sandefjord's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 0.87 PPG, Sandefjord 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.