Brann vs Lillestrom – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Brann (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Brann face Lillestrom.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Lillestrom meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brann have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann at Brann Stadion this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lillestrom (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's away record: 4W 2D 3L from 9 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.56 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.56 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Brann's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Lillestrom's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Brann, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Lillestrom — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Brann winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Brann and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 78% and Lillestrom 44% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Brann 83% | Lillestrom 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.73 xG and Lillestrom 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.086 / defence 1.018 | Lillestrom attack 0.749 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Data: 48 Brann games / 18 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 52% | Draw 24% | Lillestrom 24%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Lillestrom 4.17. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Brann 80% | Lillestrom 22%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 52% | Draw 24% | Lillestrom 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Brann 1.73 / Lillestrom 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.086 / def 1.018 | Lillestrom attack 0.749 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Brann (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Lillestrom xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Lillestrom kick off?
Brann vs Lillestrom is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Brann Stadion.
Where is Brann vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Lillestrom part of?
Brann vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 52% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Brann and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Lillestrom?
Record (6 meetings): Brann 4W | Draws 2 | Lillestrom 0W.
What form are Brann and Lillestrom in?
Brann (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Lillestrom (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Brann's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.75x) against Brann's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.17
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Brann xG
Total xG
2.81
1.08
Lillestrom xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
4%
23.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Brann and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Brann and 1.08 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Brann have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 8W 2D 8L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom's form line: 8W 2D 8L from 18 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Brann against 1.44 for Lillestrom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Brann have posted 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (5W 0D 4L).
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 4W 2D 3L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Brann are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.33 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 8W 2D 8L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 8W 2D 8L in their last 18 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Lillestrom away?
Brann's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.67 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Brann
2
Draws
0
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Lillestrom?
From 6 meetings on record, Brann have won 4, Lillestrom have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Brann 2-1 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Lillestrom?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Lillestrom see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 78%, Lillestrom 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 89% (Brann) and 22% (Lillestrom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom in 44%; Lillestrom in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Lillestrom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 78% of Brann's recent matches and 22% of Lillestrom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brann vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 89% of Brann's matches and 22% of Lillestrom's.
Do Brann and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.