Brann 1-0 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Fredrikstad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Fredrikstad meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 September 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Brann Stadion, Brann have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fredrikstad have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fredrikstad have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Brann's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Fredrikstad's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Brann lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 0–3 with Fredrikstad winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Fredrikstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 61% versus Fredrikstad 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 67% | Fredrikstad 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.59 xG and Fredrikstad 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.118 / defence 1.026 | Fredrikstad attack 0.880 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.373. Data: 51 Brann games / 51 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 45% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 29%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Fredrikstad 3.45. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Brann 70% | Fredrikstad 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 45% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Brann 1.59 / Fredrikstad 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.118 / def 1.026 | Fredrikstad attack 0.880 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Brann (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Fredrikstad xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Brann vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Fredrikstad?
Brann 1 - 0 Fredrikstad.
Where is Brann vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Fredrikstad part of?
Brann vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 45% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Brann and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Fredrikstad?
Record (3 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 0 | Fredrikstad 2W.
What form are Brann and Fredrikstad in?
Brann (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Brann's attack at 1.12x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (0.88x) against Brann's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.89
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Brann xG
Total xG
2.83
1.24
Fredrikstad xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
6%
16.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Brann and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Brann and 1.24 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Brann have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 30W 12D 9L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fredrikstad's form line: 22W 16D 13L from 51 games, 1.61 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Brann against 1.61 for Fredrikstad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Brann have posted 2.21 PPG from 24 outings (16W 5D 3L).
On the road, Fredrikstad have gone 9W 7D 8L from 24 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brann are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.31 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fredrikstad in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Fredrikstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 30W 12D 9L in their last 51 games (2.00 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 22W 16D 13L in their last 51 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Fredrikstad away?
Brann's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.21 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Brann or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Brann have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 0-4 on 18 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Brann
0
Draws
2
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Fredrikstad?
From 5 meetings on record, Brann have won 3, Fredrikstad have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Brann 3-1 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Fredrikstad?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 62%, Fredrikstad 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Brann) and 38% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: Brann keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fredrikstad in 38%; Fredrikstad in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Brann's recent matches and 42% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brann vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Brann's recent games and 38% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brann and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out Fredrikstad 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Fredrikstad 1-0 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.59 xG and Fredrikstad 1.24 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fredrikstad landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.12 / defence 1.03 against Fredrikstad attack 0.88 / defence 0.86, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 45% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 29%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 67%, Fredrikstad 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 2.00 PPG, Fredrikstad 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brann win broke the near-deadlock. Brann (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.