Brann 1-3 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Bodo/Glimt meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 September 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 3L across 8 games at Brann Stadion this term (1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 7W 2D 0L from 9 away outings — 2.56 PPG. They are averaging 3.22 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Brann register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Bodo/Glimt in 78%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Brann — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 76%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 65% and Bodo/Glimt 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Brann 59% | Bodo/Glimt 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.17 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.763 / defence 1.074 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.503 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.440. Brann's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.503 — the away xG of 2.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 Brann games / 17 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 18% | Draw 19% | Bodo/Glimt 63%. Fair-value odds: Brann 5.56 | Draw 5.26 | Bodo/Glimt 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 2.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 75% | Bodo/Glimt 78% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 18% | Draw 19% | Bodo/Glimt 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 62% | xG Brann 1.17 / Bodo/Glimt 2.33 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.763 / def 1.074 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.503 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Brann xG
Expected Goals
2.33
Bodo/Glimt xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Brann vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 20 September 2020 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Brann 1 - 3 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Brann vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Brann vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 18% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 63% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Brann and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brann and Bodo/Glimt in?
Brann (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Brann's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.50x) against Brann's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 2.33.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
18%
5.60
19%
5.29
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
0 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Brann xG
Total xG
3.49
2.33
Bodo/Glimt xG
5.60
18%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
10%
10.23
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
2%
57.23
20%
5.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Brann and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Brann and 2.33 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 4D 7L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.76 PPG from 17 outings (15W 2D 0L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.47 PPG clear of Brann — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Brann's home form reads 2W 3D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.50 points per game from 8 outings (6W 2D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.65 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Bodo/Glimt in 76%.
Last 17 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 6W 4D 7L in their last 17 games (1.29 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 15W 2D 0L in their last 17 (2.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.12 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-1 on 7 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Brann
2
Draws
6
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 2, Bodo/Glimt have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Brann, 75% for Bodo/Glimt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Brann and 100% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Brann's games and 75% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Brann's matches and 100% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Brann and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Brann.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Brann 1-3 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.17 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.33 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.76 / defence 1.07 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.50 / defence 1.07, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 18% | Draw 19% | Bodo/Glimt 63%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 59%, Bodo/Glimt 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.76 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Brann (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.