Brann 3-1 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Aalesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aalesund make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brann have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's home record at Brann Stadion: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Aalesund (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Brann, 0.40 for Aalesund — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Brann 0W, Aalesund 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2020, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Aalesund half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 72% and Aalesund 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Brann 60% | Aalesund 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.88 xG and Aalesund 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.761 / defence 1.228 | Aalesund attack 0.667 / defence 1.791. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.371. Brann's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.791 — this is suppressing Brann's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Brann games / 25 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 55% | Draw 23% | Aalesund 22%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Aalesund 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Brann (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brann at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brann 90% | Aalesund 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 55% | Draw 23% | Aalesund 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Brann 1.88 / Aalesund 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.761 / def 1.228 | Aalesund attack 0.667 / def 1.791 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Brann (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Aalesund xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Aalesund kick off?
Brann vs Aalesund kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 November 2020 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Aalesund?
Brann 3 - 1 Aalesund.
Where is Brann vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Aalesund part of?
Brann vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 55% chance of winning, Aalesund a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Brann and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Aalesund?
Record (1 meetings): Brann 0W | Draws 1 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are Brann and Aalesund in?
Brann (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Brann's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Aalesund's defensive record (1.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.67x) against Brann's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.39
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Brann xG
Total xG
3.00
1.12
Aalesund xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
3%
29.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Brann and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Brann and 1.12 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Brann have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 7W 7D 11L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aalesund's form line: 2W 5D 18L from 25 games, 0.44 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aalesund.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Brann have posted 0.83 PPG from 12 outings (2W 4D 6L).
On the road, Aalesund have gone 1W 2D 9L from 12 away games — 0.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brann are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.08 scored and 2.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Aalesund in 68%.
Last 25 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 7W 7D 11L in their last 25 games (1.12 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 2W 5D 18L in their last 25 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Aalesund away?
Brann's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 0.83 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 5-1 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Brann
1
Draws
1
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Aalesund?
From 5 meetings on record, Brann have won 3, Aalesund have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Aalesund 2-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Aalesund?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brann see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Brann, 50% for Aalesund — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Brann and 67% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Aalesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Brann's games and 50% of Aalesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Brann's matches and 67% of Aalesund's.
Do Brann and Aalesund tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Aalesund 3-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.88 xG and Aalesund 1.12 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.76 / defence 1.23 against Aalesund attack 0.67 / defence 1.79, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 55% | Draw 23% | Aalesund 22%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 60%, Aalesund 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Aalesund's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.44. Form held, and they took the win. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.