Bodo/Glimt vs Viking – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Viking make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bodo/Glimt's home record at Aspmyra Stadion: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Viking have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Viking away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Bodo/Glimt's 2.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Viking's 2.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 5 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 4 for Viking and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.6 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 0–5 with Viking winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 48% versus Viking 69%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 73% | Viking 77%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.94 xG and Viking 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.517 / defence 0.669 | Viking attack 0.978 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.517 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Viking's defence strength of 0.746 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.669 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Bodo/Glimt games / 48 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 61% | Draw 22% | Viking 17%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Viking 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Bodo/Glimt 20% | Viking 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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